CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过引入保障房的因素，对跨期消费模型进行拓展，发现理论上存在保障房的最优供给区间，接着利用我国2000—2009年的省际面板数据，基于Hansen面板门槛模型进行实证分析，得出结论：能发挥财富效应，进而有助于扩大内需的保障房覆盖率的最优区间下限为9．37％，上限为19．22％。本文对区域进一步的分析发现，东部地区的大部分省份难以超越保障房最优供给区间的下限门槛，处于保障乏力的状态，而西部地区的大部分省份则恰好处于这个最优区间内。因此，除了对地方政府的保障房建设进行激励外，还应该创新保障房的投融资和建设模式，充分调动民间资本的积极性，这样才能跨越保障房供给的最低门槛。
본문통과인입보장방적인소，대과기소비모형진행탁전，발현이론상존재보장방적최우공급구간，접착이용아국2000—2009년적성제면판수거，기우Hansen면판문함모형진행실증분석，득출결론：능발휘재부효응，진이유조우확대내수적보장방복개솔적최우구간하한위9．37％，상한위19．22％。본문대구역진일보적분석발현，동부지구적대부분성빈난이초월보장방최우공급구간적하한문함，처우보장핍력적상태，이서부지구적대부분성빈칙흡호처우저개최우구간내。인차，제료대지방정부적보장방건설진행격려외，환응해창신보장방적투융자화건설모식，충분조동민간자본적적겁성，저양재능과월보장방공급적최저문함。
Introducing public housing into an intertemporal consumption model, the paper finds the theoretical possibility of optimal public housing supply range. Based on Hansen panel threshold model, it uses China＇s inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2009 and implements empirical analysis. Results show that the lower and upper limit of optimal public housing coverage range is 9.37% and 19.22% respecitively, in order to fulfill the wealth effect and thus help to expand domestic demand. Through further region analysis, the authors find that the supply of public housing for most provinces in eastern regions are difficult to go beyond the lower limit of optimal public housing supply range, showing lower ability of housing security, while that for most provinces in western region is exactly within the optimal range. Therefore, in addition to encouraging local government to implement public housing construction, innovative investment, financing and constructing pattern of public housing and enthusiasm of private capital are very useful ways to overpass the lower limit of optimal public housing supply range.