经济研究
經濟研究
경제연구
Economic Research Journal
2012年
1期
4~16
,共null页
谢康 肖静华 周先波 乌家培
謝康 肖靜華 週先波 烏傢培
사강 초정화 주선파 오가배
工业化与信息化融合 融合质量 非参数估计 融合系数 偏离
工業化與信息化融閤 融閤質量 非參數估計 融閤繫數 偏離
공업화여신식화융합 융합질량 비삼수고계 융합계수 편리
Convergence between Industrialization and Informatization; Quality of Convergence; Nonparametric Estimation; Convergence Coefficient; Deviation
本文构建完全竞争和不完全竞争条件下的工业化与信息化融合模型,将随机前沿分析方法应用于工业化与信息化融合研究,以2000-2009年中国31个省市面板数据探讨中国工业化与信息化融合质量并发现:首先,融合具有周期大约为5年的间断平衡性,信息化带动工业化路径与两者融合的相关性高于工业化促进信息化路径,工业化和信息化对各自理想水平的偏离呈交替波动等三个主要特点;其次,融合对中国转变经济增长方式、三次产业结构调整、降低单位GRP电力消费和能耗有不同程度的影响。融合水平每增加一个点(以百分计),人均GRP可增长0.06%;融合可显著减少第一产业的产值比重,促使第一产业向第二或第三产业转移;融合可减少单位地区生产总值电力消费和能源消耗,但这种影响很小,不具统计显著性。
本文構建完全競爭和不完全競爭條件下的工業化與信息化融閤模型,將隨機前沿分析方法應用于工業化與信息化融閤研究,以2000-2009年中國31箇省市麵闆數據探討中國工業化與信息化融閤質量併髮現:首先,融閤具有週期大約為5年的間斷平衡性,信息化帶動工業化路徑與兩者融閤的相關性高于工業化促進信息化路徑,工業化和信息化對各自理想水平的偏離呈交替波動等三箇主要特點;其次,融閤對中國轉變經濟增長方式、三次產業結構調整、降低單位GRP電力消費和能耗有不同程度的影響。融閤水平每增加一箇點(以百分計),人均GRP可增長0.06%;融閤可顯著減少第一產業的產值比重,促使第一產業嚮第二或第三產業轉移;融閤可減少單位地區生產總值電力消費和能源消耗,但這種影響很小,不具統計顯著性。
본문구건완전경쟁화불완전경쟁조건하적공업화여신식화융합모형,장수궤전연분석방법응용우공업화여신식화융합연구,이2000-2009년중국31개성시면판수거탐토중국공업화여신식화융합질량병발현:수선,융합구유주기대약위5년적간단평형성,신식화대동공업화로경여량자융합적상관성고우공업화촉진신식화로경,공업화화신식화대각자이상수평적편리정교체파동등삼개주요특점;기차,융합대중국전변경제증장방식、삼차산업결구조정、강저단위GRP전력소비화능모유불동정도적영향。융합수평매증가일개점(이백분계),인균GRP가증장0.06%;융합가현저감소제일산업적산치비중,촉사제일산업향제이혹제삼산업전이;융합가감소단위지구생산총치전력소비화능원소모,단저충영향흔소,불구통계현저성。
In this paper,the convergence model mixed by industrialization and informatization will be proposed in both condition of perfect and imperfect completion.The methodology of stochastic frontier analysis will be applied into this research field of convergence between industrialization and informatization(CII) .Based on the panel data from 31 provinces or municipalities in China from the year of 2000 to 2009,there are two findings from the panel data analysis of Chinese CII quality.Firstly,the convergence shows the period of almost 5 years' intermittent balance.Furthermore,the path of informatization improving industrialization makes higher contribution towards CII than the path of industrialization improving informatization.Additionally,both industrialization and informatization data represent alternate fluctuations in terms of deviation towards its ideal value,respectively.Secondly,the CII can exert different level of impact upon the transformation of Chinese economic growth,three times of industrial structure adjustments and cutting electric power consumption per GRP unit.With increasing each point of CII level,taken as a percent,the GRP per capital can increase 0.06%.CII can remarkably reduce the output value proportion of primary industry,enabling the primary industry to move to secondary industry or tertiary industry.In addition,CII can reduce energy consumption per GDP unit to some extent.However,it shows slight influence and cannot show statistical significance.