CAJ | 학술논문

考虑区域污染与区域经济增长的双向作用机制，构建联立方程模型，利用我图1998—2008年30个地区的面板数据，实证研究了6类区域污染物指标与区域经济增长的内在关系。对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说进行验证，探讨区域污染的主要影响因素。研究结果表明：①仅工业粉尘、工业SO2与GDP存在倒U型曲线关系，符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说；32业废水、工业国废与GDP存在正的线性关系，工业废水中污染物化学需氧量、工业烟尘与GDP存在负的线性关系，不支持环境库兹涅茨曲线假说。指出并非经济发展到一定水平，区域污染问题就会得到全面解决。②人口规模对区域污染排放影响不显著；科技水平和能源利用率的提高能有效降低区域污染排放；政府环保管制未能有效控制区域污染排放；加大贸易开放程度对污染排放影响有芷有负；产业结构不合理会加剧区域污染排放。⑧工业烟尘、工业SO2污染对区域经济增长有反作用。现阶段，我国区域污染对区域经济增长的反馈机制较弱。给我们敲醒了环保警钟。指出转变经济增长方式，走经济增长与环境保护协调发展的路子是我国今后的必然选择。
고필구역오염여구역경제증장적쌍향작용궤제，구건련립방정모형，이용아도1998—2008년30개지구적면판수거，실증연구료6류구역오염물지표여구역경제증장적내재관계。대배경고자열자곡선가설진행험증，탐토구역오염적주요영향인소。연구결과표명：①부공업분진、공업SO2여GDP존재도U형곡선관계，부합배경고자열자곡선가설；32업폐수、공업국폐여GDP존재정적선성관계，공업폐수중오염물화학수양량、공업연진여GDP존재부적선성관계，불지지배경고자열자곡선가설。지출병비경제발전도일정수평，구역오염문제취회득도전면해결。②인구규모대구역오염배방영향불현저；과기수평화능원이용솔적제고능유효강저구역오염배방；정부배보관제미능유효공제구역오염배방；가대무역개방정도대오염배방영향유지유부；산업결구불합리회가극구역오염배방。⑧공업연진、공업SO2오염대구역경제증장유반작용。현계단，아국구역오염대구역경제증장적반궤궤제교약。급아문고성료배보경종。지출전변경제증장방식，주경제증장여배경보호협조발전적로자시아국금후적필연선택。
Based on the interactional mechanism between regional pollution and regional economic growth, this paper constructs a simultaneous model to investigate the relationship among six regional pollution indicators and regional economic growth. In this model, we use interprovineial panel data of 30 provinces in China duriring 1998 - 2008, in the purpose of verifying the hypothesis of Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） and trying to find out the main determinants affecting Chinese regional pollution. The results show that： First, the relation between GDP and two indicators （inddust and indSO2 ） present an reverse ＂U-shape＂ EKC curve; two indicators （indwater and indsolid ） and GDP show positive linear relation; two indicators （indcod and indsmoke ） and GDP show negative relation. So it does not mean that regional pollution problems would be totally settled when the regional economic development reached a certain stage. Second, the effect of population size isn＇ t significant; technological progress and energy efficiency are the efficient ways to discourage pollution; government environmental pollution control regulation nearly has no effect on pollution; trade liberalization has both positive and negative impact on pollution; irrational industrial structure would intensify the pollution discharge. Third, Indsmoke and indSO2 create a feedback loop with regional economic growth. Regional pollution feedback mechanism is weak in present stage. Transforming the mode of economic growth, and coordinating environmental protection with economic growth, are the choices of China.