中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2012年
1期
57~61
,共null页
经济发展 面源污染 协整检验 三峡库区
經濟髮展 麵源汙染 協整檢驗 三峽庫區
경제발전 면원오염 협정검험 삼협고구
economic development; non-point source pollution; cointegration test;Three Gorges Reservoir region
运用协整检验和Granger因果检验方法。考察了三峡库区重庆段1992—2009年经济发展与农业面源污染之润的相互关系。研究结果表明：①经济增长是影响兰峡库区重庆段农业面源污染的主要原因，且种植业、养殖业和农树生活三大类污染源排放量与农村经济发展之间都具有协整关系；②短期内农业生产总值的变化引起三类农业污染源排放量的同方向变动，长期来看。农村经济发展对农业面源污染有减缓作用，这与传统的环境一经济增长库兹涅茨倒u型曲线所揭示的一般靓律相同；⑧农业经济的发展和种植业、养殖业的污染排放量具有双向的因果关系，但是经济发展是农村生活污染排放量增长的原因。农村生活污染排放量不是经济增长的原因。它们之间是单向因果关系。因此。我们要密切关注库区经济增长对环境质量带来的负面效应。必须依赖科学技术进步，提高种植业中化肥、农药、农膜和秸秆等的利用率，根据当地农业发展的特点以及与河流的远近。规划好农业、林业、畜牧业的结构，大力发展环保型、生态型农业。以减轻农业面源污染。实现农业经济增长与保持环境质量之间的相互协调。
運用協整檢驗和Granger因果檢驗方法。攷察瞭三峽庫區重慶段1992—2009年經濟髮展與農業麵源汙染之潤的相互關繫。研究結果錶明：①經濟增長是影響蘭峽庫區重慶段農業麵源汙染的主要原因，且種植業、養殖業和農樹生活三大類汙染源排放量與農村經濟髮展之間都具有協整關繫；②短期內農業生產總值的變化引起三類農業汙染源排放量的同方嚮變動，長期來看。農村經濟髮展對農業麵源汙染有減緩作用，這與傳統的環境一經濟增長庫玆涅茨倒u型麯線所揭示的一般靚律相同；⑧農業經濟的髮展和種植業、養殖業的汙染排放量具有雙嚮的因果關繫，但是經濟髮展是農村生活汙染排放量增長的原因。農村生活汙染排放量不是經濟增長的原因。它們之間是單嚮因果關繫。因此。我們要密切關註庫區經濟增長對環境質量帶來的負麵效應。必鬚依賴科學技術進步，提高種植業中化肥、農藥、農膜和秸稈等的利用率，根據噹地農業髮展的特點以及與河流的遠近。規劃好農業、林業、畜牧業的結構，大力髮展環保型、生態型農業。以減輕農業麵源汙染。實現農業經濟增長與保持環境質量之間的相互協調。
운용협정검험화Granger인과검험방법。고찰료삼협고구중경단1992—2009년경제발전여농업면원오염지윤적상호관계。연구결과표명：①경제증장시영향란협고구중경단농업면원오염적주요원인，차충식업、양식업화농수생활삼대류오염원배방량여농촌경제발전지간도구유협정관계；②단기내농업생산총치적변화인기삼류농업오염원배방량적동방향변동，장기래간。농촌경제발전대농업면원오염유감완작용，저여전통적배경일경제증장고자열자도u형곡선소게시적일반정률상동；⑧농업경제적발전화충식업、양식업적오염배방량구유쌍향적인과관계，단시경제발전시농촌생활오염배방량증장적원인。농촌생활오염배방량불시경제증장적원인。타문지간시단향인과관계。인차。아문요밀절관주고구경제증장대배경질량대래적부면효응。필수의뢰과학기술진보，제고충식업중화비、농약、농막화갈간등적이용솔，근거당지농업발전적특점이급여하류적원근。규화호농업、임업、축목업적결구，대력발전배보형、생태형농업。이감경농업면원오염。실현농업경제증장여보지배경질량지간적상호협조。
Using cointegration and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the mutual relationship between economic development and agricultural non-point source pollution based on the data of Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir region from 1992 to 2009. The results can be shown as follows： The economic growth greatly affects the agricuhural non-point source pollution in Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir region. In addition, a cointegration relation between the emissions of three major pollutant sources （planting, aquaculture and rural life） and economic development does exist. The changes of the total value of agricultural production caused the same tendency of the emissions of three major pollution sources in the short term and economic development can slow down agricultural non-point source pollution, which is consistent with the general law revealed in the traditional environment-economic growth Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve. There is a bilateral causal relation between rural economic development and planting, aquacuhural pollution emissions. However, the economic development is the reason for the growth of rural life pollution emissions while pollution emissions do not help the rural economic growth. Consequently, they are one-way causal relation. Therefore, We must pay close attention to the negative environmental effects that economic growth in the reservoir region has on the environment quality and improve the utilization of fertilizers, pesticides, plastic sheeting and straw in farming with the help of science and technology. According to the characteristics of local agricultural development as well as the proximity of the river, the structure of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry should be well planned. Environment-friendly, ecological agriculture should be greatly encouraged in order to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution and maintain the coordination between agricultural economic growth and environment quality.
