CAJ | 학술논문

在中国式分权的背景下,出于缓解自身财政压力和政治晋升等动因,地方政府的投资行为会直接或间接地影响区域电力需求。采用系统广义矩估计方法对1999—2010年30个省区的动态面板系统进行估计分析,结果与理论预期相吻合：财政分权、电力需求、市场化都能促进经济增长,各省区的经济增长、第二产业比重、市场化程度、城市化水平显著地影响了电力需求,财政分权、人口、电力耗能指数与电力需求正相关,价格与电力需求负相关;而在不同省区,同一影响因素对电力需求的作用力度不同。
재중국식분권적배경하,출우완해자신재정압력화정치진승등동인,지방정부적투자행위회직접혹간접지영향구역전력수구。채용계통엄의구고계방법대1999—2010년30개성구적동태면판계통진행고계분석,결과여이론예기상문합：재정분권、전력수구、시장화도능촉진경제증장,각성구적경제증장、제이산업비중、시장화정도、성시화수평현저지영향료전력수구,재정분권、인구、전력모능지수여전력수구정상관,개격여전력수구부상관;이재불동성구,동일영향인소대전력수구적작용력도불동。
Under the background of China-style decentralization,due to easing self financial pressure and political promotion,the investment behaviors of local governments can directly or indirectly affect regional electric power demand.The system GMM is used to estimate and analyze dynamic panel system of 30 provinces and municipalities during 1999—2010,the analysis results coincide with theoretical forecast.The results are that financial decentralization,electric demand and marketization can boost economic growth,that the economic growth,secondary industry proportion,marketization degree and urbanization level of different provinces and municipalities can significantly influence the demand for electric power,that financial decentralization,population and electric power consumption index are positively related to electric power demand,however,price is negatively related to electric power demand,and that the same influential factor has different actions on electric power demand in different provinces and municipalities.