西部论坛
西部論罈
서부론단
West Forum
2012年
1期
74~80
,共null页
气候变化风险 社会经济影响 风险评估 风险管理 CGE模型 IPCC
氣候變化風險 社會經濟影響 風險評估 風險管理 CGE模型 IPCC
기후변화풍험 사회경제영향 풍험평고 풍험관리 CGE모형 IPCC
climate change risk; socio-economic impact; risk evaluation; risk management; CGE Model; IPCC
除一般意义上风险所具有的不确定性和危害性等特点之外,气候变化风险还具有复杂性、内在价值性及难以完全量化、动态性和客观性等特点。当前,国内外对于气候变化的经济社会风险评估研究主要包括对风险概率的建模与评估、指标体系的风险建模与评估、情景模拟的动态风险建模与评估方法以及气候变化风险的社会经济评估图标体系。由于气候变化风险的社会经济影响存在跨期性、不确定性,仍有很多未知的研究领域,如定量化、图谱化以及与自然影响评估的区分与方法合作等,未来研究仍有很多空间。
除一般意義上風險所具有的不確定性和危害性等特點之外,氣候變化風險還具有複雜性、內在價值性及難以完全量化、動態性和客觀性等特點。噹前,國內外對于氣候變化的經濟社會風險評估研究主要包括對風險概率的建模與評估、指標體繫的風險建模與評估、情景模擬的動態風險建模與評估方法以及氣候變化風險的社會經濟評估圖標體繫。由于氣候變化風險的社會經濟影響存在跨期性、不確定性,仍有很多未知的研究領域,如定量化、圖譜化以及與自然影響評估的區分與方法閤作等,未來研究仍有很多空間。
제일반의의상풍험소구유적불학정성화위해성등특점지외,기후변화풍험환구유복잡성、내재개치성급난이완전양화、동태성화객관성등특점。당전,국내외대우기후변화적경제사회풍험평고연구주요포괄대풍험개솔적건모여평고、지표체계적풍험건모여평고、정경모의적동태풍험건모여평고방법이급기후변화풍험적사회경제평고도표체계。유우기후변화풍험적사회경제영향존재과기성、불학정성,잉유흔다미지적연구영역,여정양화、도보화이급여자연영향평고적구분여방법합작등,미래연구잉유흔다공간。
Besides the characteristics such as uncertainty,perniciousness and so on of risk in general perspective,climate change has the features of complexity,difficultly complete quantification of inner value,dynamic state and objectivity and so on.Currently,the research on economic and social risk assessment of climate change at home and abroad mainly includes modeling and assessing risk probability,modeling and assessing index system and dynamic modeling and assessing method on situation simulation as well as social and economic evaluation icon system for climate change risk.Due to the across-period feature and uncertainty of the impact of climate change risk on socio-economy,there are still many unknown research fields such as quantification,atlas-based description,methods for evaluation on natural impact and their distinction and combination and future research still has many spaces.
