CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用三时期参数变结构协整方法，着重研究我国进出口对经济增长的间接作用，以及产生间接作用的介体与路径。协整结果发现，大多数考察变量与进出口之间存在显著的参数变结构现象。实证研究得出，进出口通过投资、人力资本、技术进步、消费与经济结构这些介体对经济增长的间接作用有正有负，而加总效应都是正值，出口间接作用的弹性测算值较大，而进口间接作用的弹性测算值较小．
본문운용삼시기삼수변결구협정방법，착중연구아국진출구대경제증장적간접작용，이급산생간접작용적개체여로경。협정결과발현，대다수고찰변량여진출구지간존재현저적삼수변결구현상。실증연구득출，진출구통과투자、인력자본、기술진보、소비여경제결구저사개체대경제증장적간접작용유정유부，이가총효응도시정치，출구간접작용적탄성측산치교대，이진구간접작용적탄성측산치교소．
This paper uses the variable structure co-integration of three-period parameters to focus on indirect effects of China~s import and export, and its mediators and the paths. This paper finds that there are significant variable structures for parameters between imports and exports and majority of variables. It also finds that investment, human capital, technological progress, consumption and economic structure are mediators; through these mediators, import and export have both positive and negative indirect effects on economic growth, but the total effect is positive; estimated elasticity of indirect effects of the export is large, while estimated elasticity for import is small.