CAJ | 학술논문

如何控制区域碳排放增长是当前全球关注的热点。分解各因素对碳足迹的作用及影响权重，找出其主导因素．对推动碳减排开展有积极意义。本文结合1PCC碳排放因子。计算出1998—2009年珠江三角洲能源碳足迹，然后基于Kaya恒等式，运用LMDI对珠三角能源碳足迹进行因素分解。结果表明：珠三角能源碳足迹从1998年11272万吨上升到2009年的24905万吨。总体呈现快速增长趋势：经济规模的扩大是珠三角碳足迹快速增长的主要推动力．经济效应受经济规模、国家政策与国际金融环境影响：人口增长对珠三角碳足迹的增长也起到推动作用；能源效率的提高。是抑制珠三角碳足迹增长的最重要因素；研究期问珠三角能源结构变化不大，导致能源结构效应的作用表现并不最著；发展低碳产、业、提高能源效率是抑制珠三角能源碳足迹快速增长的主要手段。适度控制经济及人口规模也是必须的。
여하공제구역탄배방증장시당전전구관주적열점。분해각인소대탄족적적작용급영향권중，조출기주도인소．대추동탄감배개전유적겁의의。본문결합1PCC탄배방인자。계산출1998—2009년주강삼각주능원탄족적，연후기우Kaya항등식，운용LMDI대주삼각능원탄족적진행인소분해。결과표명：주삼각능원탄족적종1998년11272만둔상승도2009년적24905만둔。총체정현쾌속증장추세：경제규모적확대시주삼각탄족적쾌속증장적주요추동력．경제효응수경제규모、국가정책여국제금융배경영향：인구증장대주삼각탄족적적증장야기도추동작용；능원효솔적제고。시억제주삼각탄족적증장적최중요인소；연구기문주삼각능원결구변화불대，도치능원결구효응적작용표현병불최저；발전저탄산、업、제고능원효솔시억제주삼각능원탄족적쾌속증장적주요수단。괄도공제경제급인구규모야시필수적。
How to control the growth of regional carbon emissions is the focus of the world. It is significant for carbon emissions control and reduction to identify the factors affecting energy carbon footprint and find out the key factor. Based on IPCC carbon emission factors, the energy carbon footprint of Pearl River Delta from 1998 to 2009 was calculated. Based on Kaya equation, the factors of energy carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta were decomposed with LMDI method. It was found that the energy carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta has risen from 112.72 million tons in 1998 to 249.05 million tons in 2009. Economic factor was the most important for the growth of carbon footprint, while economic effect was affected by economic scale, national policy and international financial environment. Population growth acted as a promoting factor for the energy carbon footprint. Energy efficiency was the key factor to inhibit the growth of carbon footprint. The effect of energy structure was insignificant due to its slight changes during the research period. Developing low-carbon industry and improving energy efficiency would be the primary means to reduce carbon footprint in Pearl River Delta, and to control the economy scale and population size would also be required.