中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2012年
2期
170~174
,共null页
海湾空间 海洋经济 产业关联效应 差异分析
海灣空間 海洋經濟 產業關聯效應 差異分析
해만공간 해양경제 산업관련효응 차이분석
geospatial gulfs; marine economic; industrial relations; differences analysis
以辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾为海湾地理空间尺度，引入泰尔指数和变差系数、灰色关联法研究兰大海湾地区的海洋经济规模总量和海洋产业关联效应的差异．运用多种预测模型预测未来十年三大海湾间地区海洋经济对区域经济发展影响和贡献的差异。结果显示：三大海湾空间地区海洋经济差异呈现先增大后减小趋势，2007年后呈现协调优化发展趋势；滨海旅游业、海洋交通运输和海洋油气业、海洋交通运输和海洋渔业分别对应辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾兰大经济区的拉动效应较大，形成各具区域特色的重要优势海洋产业；据模型预测结果分析，到2015年辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾地区海洋经济比重将分别达到34％、21％、25％；莱州湾、渤海湾的海洋经济直接贡献率分别平均以2％和1％的速度递增。而辽东湾则平均以0．1％的速度递减．到2020年辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾的海洋经济直接贡献率将分别为36％、29％、46％。
以遼東灣、渤海灣、萊州灣為海灣地理空間呎度，引入泰爾指數和變差繫數、灰色關聯法研究蘭大海灣地區的海洋經濟規模總量和海洋產業關聯效應的差異．運用多種預測模型預測未來十年三大海灣間地區海洋經濟對區域經濟髮展影響和貢獻的差異。結果顯示：三大海灣空間地區海洋經濟差異呈現先增大後減小趨勢，2007年後呈現協調優化髮展趨勢；濱海旅遊業、海洋交通運輸和海洋油氣業、海洋交通運輸和海洋漁業分彆對應遼東灣、渤海灣、萊州灣蘭大經濟區的拉動效應較大，形成各具區域特色的重要優勢海洋產業；據模型預測結果分析，到2015年遼東灣、渤海灣、萊州灣地區海洋經濟比重將分彆達到34％、21％、25％；萊州灣、渤海灣的海洋經濟直接貢獻率分彆平均以2％和1％的速度遞增。而遼東灣則平均以0．1％的速度遞減．到2020年遼東灣、渤海灣、萊州灣的海洋經濟直接貢獻率將分彆為36％、29％、46％。
이료동만、발해만、래주만위해만지리공간척도，인입태이지수화변차계수、회색관련법연구란대해만지구적해양경제규모총량화해양산업관련효응적차이．운용다충예측모형예측미래십년삼대해만간지구해양경제대구역경제발전영향화공헌적차이。결과현시：삼대해만공간지구해양경제차이정현선증대후감소추세，2007년후정현협조우화발전추세；빈해여유업、해양교통운수화해양유기업、해양교통운수화해양어업분별대응료동만、발해만、래주만란대경제구적랍동효응교대，형성각구구역특색적중요우세해양산업；거모형예측결과분석，도2015년료동만、발해만、래주만지구해양경제비중장분별체도34％、21％、25％；래주만、발해만적해양경제직접공헌솔분별평균이2％화1％적속도체증。이료동만칙평균이0．1％적속도체감．도2020년료동만、발해만、래주만적해양경제직접공헌솔장분별위36％、29％、46％。
To study the marine economic situation of Bohai Region, the paper divided the region into three marine economic zones by geospatial scale that is Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay and Laizhon Bay. In this paper, Theil Index, coefficient of variation, and grey correlation method were applied to analyze the total amount of marine economy of the three bays and their association effect with marine industries. In addition, several prediction models were utilized to predict the difference of the influence and contribution of the three bays＇ ocean economy to local economic development in the next decade. It showed that the difference of ocean economy among the three zones increased at first and then decreased. And their development turned to be harmonious and optimized after the year 2007. Among the main ocean industries, coastal tourism industry, ocean transportation mid marine oil-gas industry, ocean transportation and marine fishery were the most effective ocean industries to spur the economic development in Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay, and Laizhou Bay, respectively. According to simulation results, by the year 2015 the proportion of ocean economy to the total economy of Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay, and Laizhou Bay will reach 34%, 21%, and 25% respectively. Taking the direct economic contribution of ocean econimic （ AGOP/A GDP） as consideration, the contribution of Laizhou Bay and Bohai Bay will increase with the annual growth rate at 2% and 1%, respectively. Liaodong Bay, however, decrease by 0. 1% per year. In 2020, the direct economic contribution of Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay, and Laizhou Bty will be 36%, 29%, and 46%, respectively.
