CAJ | 학술논문

使用Preston法分析了1980—2000年我国各省人口惯性的变化趋势，探讨了地区间人口惯性的差异程度。1982—2000年中国各省人口惯性对人口增长的影响正在急剧减弱，各个省份正在从强烈正增长惯性类别向负增长惯性类别聚集。高达70％的省份的人口惯性已经告别人口强正增长惯性，北京、天津、上海、辽宁四个省份已经呈现人口负增长惯性。1982—2000年中国各省人口惯性呈现出下降速度快、幅度大的趋势。提醒人们注意到我国人口惯性在地区间的差异性，及早关注一些已经或即将出现负人口惯性增长地区的未来人口态势。
사용Preston법분석료1980—2000년아국각성인구관성적변화추세，탐토료지구간인구관성적차이정도。1982—2000년중국각성인구관성대인구증장적영향정재급극감약，각개성빈정재종강렬정증장관성유별향부증장관성유별취집。고체70％적성빈적인구관성이경고별인구강정증장관성，북경、천진、상해、료녕사개성빈이경정현인구부증장관성。1982—2000년중국각성인구관성정현출하강속도쾌、폭도대적추세。제성인문주의도아국인구관성재지구간적차이성，급조관주일사이경혹즉장출현부인구관성증장지구적미래인구태세。
Using Preston method, this paper examines the trends and the degree of variation of population momentum among each province of China between 1980 and 2000. Three main points are concluded：firstly, positive population momentum was decreasing steeply, and a convergence was emerging from the strong positive population momentum to negative momentum of different level in Chinese provinces during 1982 to 2000. Secondly, the strong positive population momentum effects disappeared in up to 70% of the provinces. In addi- tion, negative population momentum has already taken place in Beijing, Tianjing, Shanghai and Liaoning province. Thirdly, population momentum of Chinese provinces deceased in a faster and wider trend from 1982 to 2000. This reminds us to pay attention to population momentum heterogeneity among different areas in China, especially future＇ s population trend in provinces where negative population momentum have already appeared or would ap- pear soon.