心理学报
心理學報
심이학보
Acta Psychologica Sinica
2012年
2期
179~198
,共null页
整合模型 占优启发式模型 累积预期理论 决策过程 眼动
整閤模型 佔優啟髮式模型 纍積預期理論 決策過程 眼動
정합모형 점우계발식모형 루적예기이론 결책과정 안동
integrative model, the priority heuristic, the cumulative prospect theory, choice process, eye-tracking system.
基于信息加工过程视角:本研究采用眼动技术检验风险决策整合模型和占优启发式模型。结果表明,自主决策任务条件下决策过程反应时及信息搜索模式均不同于期望价值(Ev)迫选任务条件下的决策过程反应时及信息搜索模式;自主决策任务条件下决策过程反应时并未随着选项间整体值(CPT值)差值的变大而变快,且基于特征(attribute.based)的信息搜索多于基于选项(option.based)的信息搜索,不符合整合模型预期。此外,决策者亦未按照占优启发式模型所假定的决策步骤进行决策。基于信息加工过程的检验结果既不利于以累积预期理论为代表的整合模型,亦不利于占优启发式模型。文章建议从决策过程视角检验已有决策模型及建立新的启发式决策过程模型(processmodel)。
基于信息加工過程視角:本研究採用眼動技術檢驗風險決策整閤模型和佔優啟髮式模型。結果錶明,自主決策任務條件下決策過程反應時及信息搜索模式均不同于期望價值(Ev)迫選任務條件下的決策過程反應時及信息搜索模式;自主決策任務條件下決策過程反應時併未隨著選項間整體值(CPT值)差值的變大而變快,且基于特徵(attribute.based)的信息搜索多于基于選項(option.based)的信息搜索,不符閤整閤模型預期。此外,決策者亦未按照佔優啟髮式模型所假定的決策步驟進行決策。基于信息加工過程的檢驗結果既不利于以纍積預期理論為代錶的整閤模型,亦不利于佔優啟髮式模型。文章建議從決策過程視角檢驗已有決策模型及建立新的啟髮式決策過程模型(processmodel)。
기우신식가공과정시각:본연구채용안동기술검험풍험결책정합모형화점우계발식모형。결과표명,자주결책임무조건하결책과정반응시급신식수색모식균불동우기망개치(Ev)박선임무조건하적결책과정반응시급신식수색모식;자주결책임무조건하결책과정반응시병미수착선항간정체치(CPT치)차치적변대이변쾌,차기우특정(attribute.based)적신식수색다우기우선항(option.based)적신식수색,불부합정합모형예기。차외,결책자역미안조점우계발식모형소가정적결책보취진행결책。기우신식가공과정적검험결과기불리우이루적예기이론위대표적정합모형,역불리우점우계발식모형。문장건의종결책과정시각검험이유결책모형급건립신적계발식결책과정모형(processmodel)。
Theories intended to describe decision making under risk and uncertainty can be divided into integrative models and heuristic models, according to their theoretical basis. The integrative model implies that individuals integrate outcomes and probabilities in a compensatory way and select the option with the highest weighted sum. The heuristic model, in contrast, assumes that people do not integrate these kinds of information but rely on a repertoire of simple decision strategies, called heuristics, to make inferences, choices, estimations, and other decisions. The present paper tested the integrative model and the priority heuristic model from the point of view of choice process by using an eye-tracking system. The results show that the decision time and information acquisition pattern differ when participants make choices according to their own rules as opposed to making choices according to the imposed EV/PH rule. Specifically, the decision time did not decrease with the increased difference between the CPT values in the self-rule condition, as it did in the imposed EV rule condition. Process measures further indicated that individuals did not rely on deliberate or automatic calculations of weighted sums because attribute-based transitions were observed more frequently than option-based transitions in the self-rule condition. Furthermore, crossed transitions occurred more frequently when the two choices were cross-presented than when they were not. These results conflict with the prediction of the integrative model. Brandstatter et al. (2006) claimed that the priority heuristic could not only provide superior predictions of the output of a choice process but could also account for information acquisition. The information, Brandstatter suggested, should be considered in the order of minimum outcome, probability of minimum outcome, and maximum outcome. Although the measure of decision time supported the PH in the present study, process measures contrasted with the PH. More attention (dwelling time, fixation count and transitions) was paid to the maximum outcome than to the minimum outcome in "one-step" decision problems, and more attention (dwelling time, fixation count and transitions) was paid to the probability of maximum outcome than to the probability of minimum outcome in "three-step" decision problems. These results conflict with the prediction of the priority heuristic. In sum, neither the integrative model nor the priority heuristic could account for the data that we observed on choice process. This study encourages the use of process-oriented models and data in decision research rather than simply assessing the predictions of as-if models.