CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于资产期限结构探讨了流动性过剩的内涵，并对流动性过剩进行了定量测度和因子分析，在此基础上，提出了流动性过剩的管理思路与策略。基于资产期限结构的流动性过剩可以分解为一期滞后流动性过剩、货币期限结构与均衡比例期限升水变化率三个因子，实证分析结果表明，三个因子的均衡值均呈现季度循环的特征。中央银行应明确流动性过剩的下限和上限，在同一年度内应采取流动性管理策略保持流动性稳定提高，在不同年度应保持高流动性过剩与低流动性过剩之间的转换。为实现流动性过剩季度循环的均衡路径并使其保持在上下限范围内，中央银行可以选择流动性管理工具依据季度循环的特征调控货币期限结构与均衡比例期限升水。
본문기우자산기한결구탐토료류동성과잉적내함，병대류동성과잉진행료정량측도화인자분석，재차기출상，제출료류동성과잉적관리사로여책략。기우자산기한결구적류동성과잉가이분해위일기체후류동성과잉、화폐기한결구여균형비례기한승수변화솔삼개인자，실증분석결과표명，삼개인자적균형치균정현계도순배적특정。중앙은행응명학류동성과잉적하한화상한，재동일년도내응채취류동성관리책략보지류동성은정제고，재불동년도응보지고류동성과잉여저류동성과잉지간적전환。위실현류동성과잉계도순배적균형로경병사기보지재상하한범위내，중앙은행가이선택류동성관리공구의거계도순배적특정조공화폐기한결구여균형비례기한승수。
This paper discusses the intension of liquidity surplus, makes a quantitative measurement and factor analysis based on the term structure of assets, and suggests the liquidity surplus management strategy. Based on the term structure of assets, Liquidity surplus can be decomposed into three factors ： one-term lagged liquidity surplus, term structui？e of money, and ratio of equilibrium proportion maturity premium. Positive analysis indi- cates that equilibrium paths of three factors are characteristics of quarterly repetition. The central bank should specify the ceiling and floor of liquidity surplus, make sure liquidity surplus rise gradually within one year, and transform between high and low liquidity surplus when going beyond the year. To achieve the equilibrium values of liquidity surplus, liquidity managing tools should be used to control term structure of money and ratio of equilibrium proportion maturity premium which follow quarterly repeating paths.