CAJ | 학술논문

经济全球化使中国经济与世界的联系越来越紧密,美国作为中国最大的单国贸易伙伴,对中国经济的影响也越来越多。美国一旦发生金融危机,必然会对中国经济造成危害。本文基于全球化这一背景,从国际金融危机的传导途径入手,构建包含宏观经济、金融市场、金融机构和微观企业层面的中国国际金融风险预警指标体系。并以美国为例,利用1998年二季度至2008年四季度数据,选取部分宏观经济层面的指标,对这一体系进行实证检验。结果表明,本文构建的中国国际金融风险预警指标体系具有较好的预警效果。
경제전구화사중국경제여세계적련계월래월긴밀,미국작위중국최대적단국무역화반,대중국경제적영향야월래월다。미국일단발생금융위궤,필연회대중국경제조성위해。본문기우전구화저일배경,종국제금융위궤적전도도경입수,구건포함굉관경제、금융시장、금융궤구화미관기업층면적중국국제금융풍험예경지표체계。병이미국위례,이용1998년이계도지2008년사계도수거,선취부분굉관경제층면적지표,대저일체계진행실증검험。결과표명,본문구건적중국국제금융풍험예경지표체계구유교호적예경효과。
The economic globalization is making the link between the economy of China and the world closer and closer. The US, as China＇s biggest single-country trade partner, is impacting the economy of China more and more. Once financial crisis outbreak in the US, it will certainly jeopardize the economy of China. In this paper, based on the background of globalization, we started from the conduction approaches of international financial crisis, established China＇s international financial crisis predicting indexes system which comprises indexes from macro economics, financial market, financial institutions and micro enterprises, and took the US as an example, used quarter data of 1998 -2008, chose several macro economic indexes, made an empirical test of this system. The results showed that the China＇s international financial crisis predicting indexes system established in this paper has good predicting ability.