CAJ | 학술논문

分别采用市场供给模型、时间梯度模型和消费使用模型对2005-2010年我国大陆废旧手机的产生量进行了测算和比较。结果显示，不同模型测算结果之间存在较大差异，市场供给模型和时间梯度模型的测算结果比较接近，均远小于消费使用模型测算的结果，三种模型测算的2010年我国大陆废旧手机产生量分别为1．47亿、1．34亿和4．30亿部。总体上看，我国大陆废旧手机的产生量巨大且快速增长，但要准确测算还需要加强对模型活动数据和参数的调查和分析。
분별채용시장공급모형、시간제도모형화소비사용모형대2005-2010년아국대륙폐구수궤적산생량진행료측산화비교。결과현시，불동모형측산결과지간존재교대차이，시장공급모형화시간제도모형적측산결과비교접근，균원소우소비사용모형측산적결과，삼충모형측산적2010년아국대륙폐구수궤산생량분별위1．47억、1．34억화4．30억부。총체상간，아국대륙폐구수궤적산생량거대차쾌속증장，단요준학측산환수요가강대모형활동수거화삼수적조사화분석。
Based on data collected from statistics, market survey and news report, the amount of discarded mobile phones during 2005 to 2010 in Mainland China is separately estimated by ;using market supply model, time gradient model, and consumer usage model. It turns out that the estimated results among different models can be quite different. The discarded amount estimated by market supply model and time gradient model are relatively close, yet far smaller than the amount by consumer usage model. For instance, the estimated results are 147 million, 134 million and 430 million respectively in 2010. As a whole, the amount of discarded mobile phones in mainland China is very large and increasing rapidly. To estimate the amount of discarded mobile phones accurately, more survey and analysis should be done on the activity data and parameter of the estimate models.