CAJ | 학술논문

为更好地对人民币境外流通规模进行估算,文章对传统的货币需求缺口模型进行改进：增加用于股票市场和土地市场交易的第三种货币需求m3,通过从实际货币供应中扣除国内各种货币需求和沉淀货币,间接估算境外人民币流通数量。在此基础上,文章运用改进后的估算模型以1996年第一季度到2005年第二季度的数据为基础,对2005年第三季度到2010年第二季度的人民币境外持有规模进行了估算,并根据估算结果提出相应的政策建议。
위경호지대인민폐경외류통규모진행고산,문장대전통적화폐수구결구모형진행개진：증가용우고표시장화토지시장교역적제삼충화폐수구m3,통과종실제화폐공응중구제국내각충화폐수구화침정화폐,간접고산경외인민폐류통수량。재차기출상,문장운용개진후적고산모형이1996년제일계도도2005년제이계도적수거위기출,대2005년제삼계도도2010년제이계도적인민폐경외지유규모진행료고산,병근거고산결과제출상응적정책건의。
To estimate the external demand of RMB currency, this paper improves the traditional model of money demand gap by increasing the third money demand M3 in the stock market and land market. By deducting the domestic money demands and Settling Money （SM） from the practical currency supply, this paper indirectly estimates the external demand of REM currency. Accordingly, based on the data collected between the first quarter of 1996 and the second quarter of 2005, the improved model is used to estimate the scale of RMB currency held outside China from the third quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2010. Suggests are put forward according to the result of the estimation.