CAJ | 학술논문

＂经济投票＂理论为分析公民投票行为内在机理提供有效的观测窗口。伴随我国农村基层群众自治组织民主选举的蓬勃开展,针对投票人投票参与和投票选择等行为研究的重要性日益凸显。已有研究中由于存在样本选择、资料来源、研究方法取向等问题,无法从严谨的学术视角提供经济投票理论对中国农村基层民主选举行为的影响的实证分析。对经济投票理论展开全景性回顾和归纳性评述,基于全国性调查数据来实证分析农村基层选举中经济投票理论的现实影响,可以发现,年龄与投票行为之间存在倒U形关系,社会经济地位对投票行为的影响主要通过经济状况和主观社会地位来施加,政治涉入程度越深的村民更倾向于积极参与,认为＂经济发展比民主重要＂的人群更愿意投票,＂经济评价＂对投票行为只发挥了很有限的影响。所谓＂经济投票＂理论对中国农村基层投票行为的解释力有限,可能受理论局限性、经济投票测量问题、中国当前重经济发展的宏观环境以及村庄的异质性的影响。
＂경제투표＂이론위분석공민투표행위내재궤리제공유효적관측창구。반수아국농촌기층군음자치조직민주선거적봉발개전,침대투표인투표삼여화투표선택등행위연구적중요성일익철현。이유연구중유우존재양본선택、자료래원、연구방법취향등문제,무법종엄근적학술시각제공경제투표이론대중국농촌기층민주선거행위적영향적실증분석。대경제투표이론전개전경성회고화귀납성평술,기우전국성조사수거래실증분석농촌기층선거중경제투표이론적현실영향,가이발현,년령여투표행위지간존재도U형관계,사회경제지위대투표행위적영향주요통과경제상황화주관사회지위래시가,정치섭입정도월심적촌민경경향우적겁삼여,인위＂경제발전비민주중요＂적인군경원의투표,＂경제평개＂대투표행위지발휘료흔유한적영향。소위＂경제투표＂이론대중국농촌기층투표행위적해석력유한,가능수이론국한성、경제투표측량문제、중국당전중경제발전적굉관배경이급촌장적이질성적영향。
The theory of economic voting provides effective observation window when we analysis voting behavior. With the development of China＇s village election, it＇s increasingly important to exame voters＇ behaviors, especially from a perspective of economic voting. Using a national survey data, the analysis of paper reveals that people’s age, social status and political involvement have significant effects on villager’s voting behavior, however, the relationship between economic perceptions and voting in village elections appears to be weak-link in China. We think the reasons of this weak-link relationship are its own limitation of economic voting, measurements problem of economic perceptions, macro context of economic development and heterogeneity of villages.