CAJ | 학술논문

中国已经成为世界第二大经济体，与世界经济波动同步性日益显现。本文分析中国与世界经济协动性的影响因素．探讨各因素间的内生关系。用联立方程检验1992-2008年中国与39个贸易伙伴的面板数据，结果表明：贸易密度、金融一体化（直接投资强度和贷款利率相关性）、产业相似度对经济协动性影响为正：但现有不考虑各因素内生关系的研究中贸易密度的作用被高估，产业结构相似度的直接和间接作用被低估：中国与亚洲国家经济协动性为负．在贷款利率相关性高的条件下，产业结构越相似面临共同冲击风险越大．
중국이경성위세계제이대경제체，여세계경제파동동보성일익현현。본문분석중국여세계경제협동성적영향인소．탐토각인소간적내생관계。용련립방정검험1992-2008년중국여39개무역화반적면판수거，결과표명：무역밀도、금융일체화（직접투자강도화대관리솔상관성）、산업상사도대경제협동성영향위정：단현유불고필각인소내생관계적연구중무역밀도적작용피고고，산업결구상사도적직접화간접작용피저고：중국여아주국가경제협동성위부．재대관리솔상관성고적조건하，산업결구월상사면림공동충격풍험월대．
China has become the world＇s second largest economy, and the business cycle synchronization with world economy becomes more obvious. This thesis examines the determinants of business cycle comovements between China and its major trade partners in the period from 1992 to 2008： The linkages of trade, financial integration, industrial structure and business cycle comovement are evaluated in the context of a system of simultaneous equations. The main results show： Bilateral trade intensity, financial integration and industry structure similarity are positively; Asian economies are negatively correlated with GDP comovement. But the trade intensity effect is much smaller than previously reported using OLS. The role of direct and indirect effect of industrial structure similarity has been underestimated in previously reported.