CAJ | 학술논문

人均二氧化碳排放的影响因素基于Kaya恒等式可以分解为人均GDP、能源结构和能源强度三个因素。VEC模型的实证结果显示我国存在二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线,即人均二氧化碳排放随我国经济增长先恶化后改善的倒U形曲线,非化石能源比重与能源强度对我国二氧化碳减排影响显著,但方差分解方法显示能源结构因素和能源强度因素对我国二氧化碳排放的抑制作用非常有限。我国＂十二五＂期间和2020年的节能减排任务艰巨,只有坚持节约发展和清洁发展,才能实现减排目标。
인균이양화탄배방적영향인소기우Kaya항등식가이분해위인균GDP、능원결구화능원강도삼개인소。VEC모형적실증결과현시아국존재이양화탄고자열자곡선,즉인균이양화탄배방수아국경제증장선악화후개선적도U형곡선,비화석능원비중여능원강도대아국이양화탄감배영향현저,단방차분해방법현시능원결구인소화능원강도인소대아국이양화탄배방적억제작용비상유한。아국＂십이오＂기간화2020년적절능감배임무간거,지유견지절약발전화청길발전,재능실현감배목표。
The influencing factors of per capita emissions can be decomposed as GDP per capita,energy structure and energy intensity based on Kaya identity.The empirical result of VECM shows that CKC,the inverted U-shaped curve between emissions and income,holds for China.Moreover,both proportion of non-fossil energy and energy intensity are significant on emissions reduction.However,the result of variance decomposition displays that their restraining effects are very limited.In addition,the tasks for energy saving and emissions reduction for twelve five-year-plan and in 2020 are still arduous.We must insist on conservative and clean development to accomplish our goal.