中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2012年
3期
32~36
,共null页
气候变暖 种植业产出 山东省 面板数据
氣候變暖 種植業產齣 山東省 麵闆數據
기후변난 충식업산출 산동성 면판수거
climate warming; output of plant farming; Shandong Province; panel data
通过建立引入气候因素的种植救生产函数模型，利用1990—2009年山东省40个县市种植业生产及气象面板数据。运罔产出增长分解法。实证分析气候因素和非气候因素对山东省种植业产出的影响并对产出增长的各要素贡献进行分解。结果表明：气候变暖对山东省种植业带来明显的负面影响。1990—2009年间气候因素对山东省40个县市的总体产出增长的影响为-11．03％，在其他条件不变的情况下，平均温度每升高1℃。总体种植业总产值减少2．2％，总体产值增长下降1．48％；温度升高对鲁西北地区、鲁南地区种植业产出的影响最为明显；同时，降水对种植业产出影响显著，降水因素使得山东省种植业产出增长减少16．86％；物质投入中化肥和农药对种植业产出增长贡献最大，但农业劳动力减少。特别是种植业劳动力的减少。开始显著地影响种植业产出．使得种植业产出增长减少5．90％；技术进步的影响作用在下降。
通過建立引入氣候因素的種植救生產函數模型，利用1990—2009年山東省40箇縣市種植業生產及氣象麵闆數據。運罔產齣增長分解法。實證分析氣候因素和非氣候因素對山東省種植業產齣的影響併對產齣增長的各要素貢獻進行分解。結果錶明：氣候變暖對山東省種植業帶來明顯的負麵影響。1990—2009年間氣候因素對山東省40箇縣市的總體產齣增長的影響為-11．03％，在其他條件不變的情況下，平均溫度每升高1℃。總體種植業總產值減少2．2％，總體產值增長下降1．48％；溫度升高對魯西北地區、魯南地區種植業產齣的影響最為明顯；同時，降水對種植業產齣影響顯著，降水因素使得山東省種植業產齣增長減少16．86％；物質投入中化肥和農藥對種植業產齣增長貢獻最大，但農業勞動力減少。特彆是種植業勞動力的減少。開始顯著地影響種植業產齣．使得種植業產齣增長減少5．90％；技術進步的影響作用在下降。
통과건립인입기후인소적충식구생산함수모형，이용1990—2009년산동성40개현시충식업생산급기상면판수거。운망산출증장분해법。실증분석기후인소화비기후인소대산동성충식업산출적영향병대산출증장적각요소공헌진행분해。결과표명：기후변난대산동성충식업대래명현적부면영향。1990—2009년간기후인소대산동성40개현시적총체산출증장적영향위-11．03％，재기타조건불변적정황하，평균온도매승고1℃。총체충식업총산치감소2．2％，총체산치증장하강1．48％；온도승고대로서북지구、로남지구충식업산출적영향최위명현；동시，강수대충식업산출영향현저，강수인소사득산동성충식업산출증장감소16．86％；물질투입중화비화농약대충식업산출증장공헌최대，단농업노동력감소。특별시충식업노동력적감소。개시현저지영향충식업산출．사득충식업산출증장감소5．90％；기술진보적영향작용재하강。
Based on the panel data of meteorology and plant farming from 1990 to 2009 in 40 counties of Shandong Province, by using the method of output growth decomposition, this paper established production functions of plant farming and analyzed the impacts of climate and non-climate factors on the output of that in Shandong Province as well as the contribution of each variable to the growth of plant farming output. The result indicated that the influences of climate factors on the growth of the total output in 40 counties of Shandong Province is -11.03% from 1990 to 2009. Keeping the other conditions unchanged, with the average temperature rising up I~C, the total output of plant farming correspondingly reduced by 2.2% , while the growth of the total output reduced by 1.48%. Increasing temperature was the most obvious contributor which offected the plant fanning output in the northwest and Lunan region of Shandong Province. Precipitation had significant impacts on the output of plant farming by 16.86%. Fertilizers and pesticides were the top two contributors to the growth of plantfarming output. The decrease of agricultural labor forces, especially the labor forces of plant farming, started to have obvious impacts on the output of plant farming, with the growth of output of plant fanning reduced by 5.90%. The impact of technical progress was in decline. Climate warming brought negative effects on planting farming in Shandong Province. The present study dissected various elements via the production functions, especially the contribution of climate warming to planting farming, which will be useful for further food security in Shandong Province.
