中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2012年
3期
77~81
,共null页
刘贞 蒲刚清 施於人 阎建明 胡健
劉貞 蒲剛清 施於人 閻建明 鬍健
류정 포강청 시어인 염건명 호건
钢铁行业 碳排放 技术扩散 情景设计 低碳示范城市
鋼鐵行業 碳排放 技術擴散 情景設計 低碳示範城市
강철행업 탄배방 기술확산 정경설계 저탄시범성시
steel industry; carbon emissions; technology diffusion; scene design; low-carbon model city
我国钢铁行业碳排放量约为全国碳排放总置的15％。因此完成钢铁行搬碳减排目标是实现我国碳减排总量目标的重要环节。研究为求解未来钢铁行业的碳排放总量与碳减排潜力，提出一种基于技术进步与碳减排外部性的情景仿真模型。在不同的技术进步与碳减排外部性情境下。模型综合考虑节能减排技术对行业／地区碳排放的影响，设计锁定、成长和促进三种碳减排情景。最后采用该模型对重庆市钢铁行业的碳排放总量，碳减排潜力与节能技改投资成本变化进行了情景仿真分析与评价。研究表明，为更好地实现行业的碳减排目标。在现有的节能减排政策环境下。重庆市钢铁行业。需要进一步加强对节能减排技术的推广；加大技术推广投资，用于更多的节能减排技术的研发与推广，加快节能减排技术扩散速度，增强行业碳减排成效；有选择性的进行投入与推广，提高资金的利用效率，以有限的资金实现行业／地区碳减排成效的最大化。
我國鋼鐵行業碳排放量約為全國碳排放總置的15％。因此完成鋼鐵行搬碳減排目標是實現我國碳減排總量目標的重要環節。研究為求解未來鋼鐵行業的碳排放總量與碳減排潛力，提齣一種基于技術進步與碳減排外部性的情景倣真模型。在不同的技術進步與碳減排外部性情境下。模型綜閤攷慮節能減排技術對行業／地區碳排放的影響，設計鎖定、成長和促進三種碳減排情景。最後採用該模型對重慶市鋼鐵行業的碳排放總量，碳減排潛力與節能技改投資成本變化進行瞭情景倣真分析與評價。研究錶明，為更好地實現行業的碳減排目標。在現有的節能減排政策環境下。重慶市鋼鐵行業。需要進一步加彊對節能減排技術的推廣；加大技術推廣投資，用于更多的節能減排技術的研髮與推廣，加快節能減排技術擴散速度，增彊行業碳減排成效；有選擇性的進行投入與推廣，提高資金的利用效率，以有限的資金實現行業／地區碳減排成效的最大化。
아국강철행업탄배방량약위전국탄배방총치적15％。인차완성강철행반탄감배목표시실현아국탄감배총량목표적중요배절。연구위구해미래강철행업적탄배방총량여탄감배잠력，제출일충기우기술진보여탄감배외부성적정경방진모형。재불동적기술진보여탄감배외부성정경하。모형종합고필절능감배기술대행업／지구탄배방적영향，설계쇄정、성장화촉진삼충탄감배정경。최후채용해모형대중경시강철행업적탄배방총량，탄감배잠력여절능기개투자성본변화진행료정경방진분석여평개。연구표명，위경호지실현행업적탄감배목표。재현유적절능감배정책배경하。중경시강철행업。수요진일보가강대절능감배기술적추엄；가대기술추엄투자，용우경다적절능감배기술적연발여추엄，가쾌절능감배기술확산속도，증강행업탄감배성효；유선택성적진행투입여추엄，제고자금적이용효솔，이유한적자금실현행업／지구탄감배성효적최대화。
In China, carbon emissions from iron and steel industry account for 15% of the national total. Therefore, to reduce carbon emission from steel industry is the key to completing the national carbon emission reduction targets. A simulation model of carbon emission reduction was proposed based on technological progress and environmental externality. In different technological progress and production externality scenarios, the model takes into considerations the affect of energy-saving technology on sector/re~onal carbon reduction emissions. Three carbon emission reduction scenarios were designed, namely： locking scenarios, growth scenarios and promotion scenarios. Finally, the model was used for in simulation analysis and evaluation and evaluation on the carbon reduction emission potential of iron and steel industry in Chongqing. Based on the conclusion, in order to achieve the carbon emission reduction targets in iron and steel industry, （1）under the current policy environment of carbon emission reduction, energy-saving technology should be developed and applied in iron and steel industry of Chongqing; （2）the investment in R＆D of energy-saving technologies and the diffusion should be enhanced, and the effect of carbon emission reduction be strengthened; （3）right technologies should be selected for investment and promotion, utilization efficiency of investment be improved and the effect of carbon emission reduction be maximized with limited investment.
