CAJ | 학술논문

本文首先根据中国收入分配制度的特点将消费者的生命周期区分为退休前和退休后,分别设置新古典经济学生命周期消费（Life-Cycles）理论的跨期预算约束;在生命不确定性的假设下,推导出了消费者的最优消费路径。而且,依据1988年1月-2008年12月天津市的城镇住户调查数据,利用动态伪面板数据模型的实证分析为理论结果提供了经验证据。另外,实证研究发现,①对于户主出生于1965年前的家庭,他们依然延续了传统的消费习惯,完善社会保障机制、转变他们的消费观念是拉动内需的必由之路;②跨期替代弹性接近于零,即城镇居民更倾向于即期消费;③期望通过货币政策的利率工具刺激城镇居民消费的作用很有限。
본문수선근거중국수입분배제도적특점장소비자적생명주기구분위퇴휴전화퇴휴후,분별설치신고전경제학생명주기소비（Life-Cycles）이론적과기예산약속;재생명불학정성적가설하,추도출료소비자적최우소비로경。이차,의거1988년1월-2008년12월천진시적성진주호조사수거,이용동태위면판수거모형적실증분석위이론결과제공료경험증거。령외,실증연구발현,①대우호주출생우1965년전적가정,타문의연연속료전통적소비습관,완선사회보장궤제、전변타문적소비관념시랍동내수적필유지로;②과기체대탄성접근우령,즉성진거민경경향우즉기소비;③기망통과화폐정책적리솔공구자격성진거민소비적작용흔유한。
In this paper,firstly the consumers＇ life cycle is divided into pre-retirement and retirement according to the characteristics of China＇s income system,and intertemporal budget constraints of life cycle consumption theory were set in the new classical economics; Under uncertain lifetime, the consumers＇ optimal consumption path is derived. Moreover, according to Tianjin household survey data during January 1988 to December 2008,the dynamic pseudo-panel data model provided empirical evidence for theoretical results. In addition, empirical findings are：（ 1 ） the family still continued the tradition of spending habits, if the head of the household was born before 1965. So, improving social security system, changing their concept of consumption is the only way to stimulate domestic demand; （2） the intertemporal substitution flexibility is close to zero （0. 008 ） , that is, urban residents prefer immediate consumption; （ 3 ） interest rates tools of monetary policy plays little role in stimulating the consumption of urban residents.