华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
East China Economic Management
2012年
4期
49~57
,共null页
信贷供给结构 其它贷款 向量自回归模型 经济波动
信貸供給結構 其它貸款 嚮量自迴歸模型 經濟波動
신대공급결구 기타대관 향량자회귀모형 경제파동
credit supply structure; other credits; VAR Model; economic fluctuations
文章选取1992—2010年的季度数据,通过建立各变量的VAR模型和VEC模型,对我国信贷供给结构与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明：中长期贷款、短期贷款与产出没有格兰杰因果关系,其它贷款与产出存在着相互因果关系,同时,信贷供给结构各变量均不引起通货膨胀的变化,而通货膨胀是中长期贷款、短期贷款变化的原因;从信贷供给结构各变量来看,其它贷款是引起我国经济波动的主要原因;中长期贷款、短期贷款、其它贷款三者之间存在不同程度的相互影响。基于这些分析结论,文章提出若干信贷政策的建议。
文章選取1992—2010年的季度數據,通過建立各變量的VAR模型和VEC模型,對我國信貸供給結構與經濟波動的關繫進行實證分析。研究結果錶明：中長期貸款、短期貸款與產齣沒有格蘭傑因果關繫,其它貸款與產齣存在著相互因果關繫,同時,信貸供給結構各變量均不引起通貨膨脹的變化,而通貨膨脹是中長期貸款、短期貸款變化的原因;從信貸供給結構各變量來看,其它貸款是引起我國經濟波動的主要原因;中長期貸款、短期貸款、其它貸款三者之間存在不同程度的相互影響。基于這些分析結論,文章提齣若榦信貸政策的建議。
문장선취1992—2010년적계도수거,통과건립각변량적VAR모형화VEC모형,대아국신대공급결구여경제파동적관계진행실증분석。연구결과표명：중장기대관、단기대관여산출몰유격란걸인과관계,기타대관여산출존재착상호인과관계,동시,신대공급결구각변량균불인기통화팽창적변화,이통화팽창시중장기대관、단기대관변화적원인;종신대공급결구각변량래간,기타대관시인기아국경제파동적주요원인;중장기대관、단기대관、기타대관삼자지간존재불동정도적상호영향。기우저사분석결론,문장제출약간신대정책적건의。
Selecting the quarterly data from 1992 to 2010, basing on a VAR model, this paper eonducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between the credit supply structure and economic fluctuations. The results of the study as following, firstly, there are no Granger relationship between output and long-term loans, short-term loans, while there are mutual Granger relationship between output and other loans. Meanwhile, the variables of the credit supply structure are not caused the ehanges of inflation, and infation can cause the changes of long-term loans and short-term loans. Secondly, frum the per- speetive of the variables of the credit supply structure, the other loans is the main cause of Chinese economic fluctualions. Thirdly, there are different interactions between long-term loans, short-term loans, and other loans. Based on these conclusions, the paper gives some policy implications on credit policy.
