经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2012年
3期
103~106
,共null页
外汇储备 物价水平 协整检验 向量误差修正模型
外彙儲備 物價水平 協整檢驗 嚮量誤差脩正模型
외회저비 물개수평 협정검험 향량오차수정모형
foreign exchange reserves; pricelevel; co -integration test; Vector error correction model
协整和格兰杰因果检验结果表明，我国外汇储备与物价水平存在协整关系，且外汇储备是物价水平的格兰杰原因，表明外汇储备增加将对通货膨胀形成压力。但从误差修正模型的检验结果看，我国外汇储备对物价水平的影响在短期内较为有限，其主要原因是我国央行短期内进行大量的外汇冲销操作。因此，我国需要采取有效的措施来缓解通胀压力，如加大央行公开市场业务操作、改革外汇管理体制、适当放宽汇率浮动幅度以及合理使用我国现有外汇储备等。
協整和格蘭傑因果檢驗結果錶明，我國外彙儲備與物價水平存在協整關繫，且外彙儲備是物價水平的格蘭傑原因，錶明外彙儲備增加將對通貨膨脹形成壓力。但從誤差脩正模型的檢驗結果看，我國外彙儲備對物價水平的影響在短期內較為有限，其主要原因是我國央行短期內進行大量的外彙遲銷操作。因此，我國需要採取有效的措施來緩解通脹壓力，如加大央行公開市場業務操作、改革外彙管理體製、適噹放寬彙率浮動幅度以及閤理使用我國現有外彙儲備等。
협정화격란걸인과검험결과표명，아국외회저비여물개수평존재협정관계，차외회저비시물개수평적격란걸원인，표명외회저비증가장대통화팽창형성압력。단종오차수정모형적검험결과간，아국외회저비대물개수평적영향재단기내교위유한，기주요원인시아국앙행단기내진행대량적외회충소조작。인차，아국수요채취유효적조시래완해통창압력，여가대앙행공개시장업무조작、개혁외회관리체제、괄당방관회솔부동폭도이급합리사용아국현유외회저비등。
The paper will analyze the transmission mechanism of foreign exchange reserves＇ impacts on the price level under the current China＇ s foreign exchange system. This paper uses econometrics knowledge and Eviews6.0 to make empirical analysis of the relationship between them. The result of the vector error correction model shows that, the short - term effects between then are limited, the mainly reason is that China＇ s central bank carried out high -volume short- term foreign exchange sterilization. But, the result of co -integration and causal Test shows that, there indeed exists long - term co - integration relationship between China＇ s foreign exchange reserves and the price level, and the former is the Granger - causality of the latter, which means the foreign exchange reserves will give pressure on inflation. So, we must to build effective measures to mitigate inflationary pressures from the foreign exchange reserves, such as increasing open market operation of the central bank, further reforming foreign exchange management system, floating exchange rate moderately and using our existing foreign exchange reserves fairly.
