CAJ | 학술논문

本文建立了在全国及省际能耗强度和碳排放强度约束下省区经济增长优化模型，分析了三种假设情景中2010—2015年各省经济增长、能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的最优分配路径的异同，指出了各种情景下经济增长、能源消耗和二氧化碳排放变动较大的省区，比较了各种情景下的节能成本和减排成本，分析了各种情景下全国能源消耗和二氧化碳排放对全国生产总值的脱钩状态。优化结果显示，现行全国及各省能耗强度约束对贵州、青海、宁夏和山西经济发展较为不利，对其他省区经济发展较有利。减慢经济增长速度和进一步降低全国能耗强度对节能减排的作用均比较明显。若全国能源碳强度遵循历史变化趋势，则2010—2015年全国能耗强度和碳排放强度最大降低幅度约分别为17．279／5和21．07％。
본문건립료재전국급성제능모강도화탄배방강도약속하성구경제증장우화모형，분석료삼충가설정경중2010—2015년각성경제증장、능원소모화이양화탄배방적최우분배로경적이동，지출료각충정경하경제증장、능원소모화이양화탄배방변동교대적성구，비교료각충정경하적절능성본화감배성본，분석료각충정경하전국능원소모화이양화탄배방대전국생산총치적탈구상태。우화결과현시，현행전국급각성능모강도약속대귀주、청해、저하화산서경제발전교위불리，대기타성구경제발전교유리。감만경제증장속도화진일보강저전국능모강도대절능감배적작용균비교명현。약전국능원탄강도준순역사변화추세，칙2010—2015년전국능모강도화탄배방강도최대강저폭도약분별위17．279／5화21．07％。
In the paper, under the constraint of energy intensity and Carbon dioxide emissionsintensity of provinces and the nation, an optimal model of economic growth of all provinces in China is established. Optimal allocation of economic growth, energy consumption and Carbon dioxide emissions are analyzed in three kinds of hypothesis scenarios from 2010 to 2015. Those provinces with larger fluctuation in energy consumption and Carbon dioxide emissions are pointed out. The cost of energy conservation and Carbon dioxide emissions reduction are compared in three kinds of hypothesis scenarios. The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in China are analyzed in three kinds of scenarios. At present, the restriction of energy intensity and Carbon dioxide Emissions intensity of provinces and the nation is not beneficial to economic development of Guizhou, Qinghai, Ningxia and Shanxi, but it is beneficial to economic development of other provinces in the benchmark scene. Reducing economic growth rate and energy intensity of the nation can have good effects on energy conservation and Carbon dioxide emissions reduction. If national energy-carbon intensity follows the change tendency in the past five years, energy intensity and Carbon dioxide emissions intensity are about to decrease by 17.27% and 21.07% respectively from 2010 to 2015.