CAJ | 학술논문

粮价的波动最终会给一国的粮食安全带来巨大风险。了解国际粮价的波动特征有助于采取相应的措施稳定粮价，避免粮价波动的国际传导对国内粮食市场进而对粮食安全产生不利影响。通过建立ARCH类模型，分析各类粮食国际价格的波动规律。得出的主要结论有：国际粮价波动存在明显的集族性；外部冲击对国际粮价波动具有持久性影响；国际粮食市场不存在高风险高粮价的特征；国际粮价波动具有显著的非对称性，而且粮价上涨的信息引发的粮价波动要大于粮价下降的信息引发的波动。
량개적파동최종회급일국적양식안전대래거대풍험。료해국제량개적파동특정유조우채취상응적조시은정량개，피면량개파동적국제전도대국내양식시장진이대양식안전산생불리영향。통과건립ARCH류모형，분석각류양식국제개격적파동규률。득출적주요결론유：국제량개파동존재명현적집족성；외부충격대국제량개파동구유지구성영향；국제양식시장불존재고풍험고량개적특정；국제량개파동구유현저적비대칭성，이차량개상창적신식인발적량개파동요대우량개하강적신식인발적파동。
The paper applies ARCH models to analyzing the fluctuations of international food prices. Our empirical findings point to four conclusions. First, fluctuations of international food prices are characterized by clustering. Second, the external shocks have a lasting impact on food price fluctuations. Third, in the international food market, high risk will not necessarily lead to high food prices. Fourth, fluctuations of international food prices are asymmetric and fluctuations caused by information associated with rising prices are greater than those caused by information associated with falling prices.