CAJ | 학술논문

考虑未来并购政策出台时机和信贷市场规模双重不确定性的影响，构建了外资银行并购本地银行和退出的实物期权决策模型，重点分析了市场与政策不确定性和银行自身特征对外资银行并购和退出决策的影响，结论表明：随着政策出台速度的加快和市场不确定性的增加，外资银行退出的可能降低，同时并购和退出临界值之差逐渐增加表明外资银行更加愿意维持股权合作：股权合作机会成本高和风险控制技术弱的外资银行更加不可能实施并购，而更加可能退出；股权比例高的外资银行实施并购和退出的可能性都低，即更加愿意维持股权合作。
고필미래병구정책출태시궤화신대시장규모쌍중불학정성적영향，구건료외자은행병구본지은행화퇴출적실물기권결책모형，중점분석료시장여정책불학정성화은행자신특정대외자은행병구화퇴출결책적영향，결론표명：수착정책출태속도적가쾌화시장불학정성적증가，외자은행퇴출적가능강저，동시병구화퇴출림계치지차축점증가표명외자은행경가원의유지고권합작：고권합작궤회성본고화풍험공제기술약적외자은행경가불가능실시병구，이경가가능퇴출；고권비례고적외자은행실시병구화퇴출적가능성도저，즉경가원의유지고권합작。
Taking both tile uncertainty of the release timing of policy restriction on merging domestic banks and that of the credit market size into account, this paper develops a real option model to analyze the effects of two kinds of uncertainties as well as banks＇ specific characteristics on the foreign banks＇ merging and exit decision. The results show that when the release of policy restriction on foreign banks＇ merging activities speeds up and the uncertainty about market size increases, foreign banks prefer to cooperate with a domestic bank, rather than exit the market. Moreover, we find that foreign banks with a high opportunity cost or poor screening techniques prefer to exit the market. However, foreign banks with a high equity stake in domestic banks would like to continue to cooperate with a domestic bank.