CAJ | 학술논문

用固定市场份额模型对东盟五国制成品出口增长因素长期变化趋势进行了实证研究。研究表明,从1980-2008年,东盟五国出口增长从＂强竞争、弱市场＂转变为＂强市场,弱竞争＂的局面;同时,商品构成效应对出口的影响从正向作用转向负向作用,成为制约出口增长的主要因素。采用显性比较优势法,对不同类型制成品的具体国际竞争力进行了研究。结果显示,除印尼外,东盟五国在劳动密集型产品SITC6＋8整体上已经丧失了国际竞争力;而机械产品SITC7显露出较强劲的国际比较优势;化学品SITC5的出口比较优势在不断提高。
용고정시장빈액모형대동맹오국제성품출구증장인소장기변화추세진행료실증연구。연구표명,종1980-2008년,동맹오국출구증장종＂강경쟁、약시장＂전변위＂강시장,약경쟁＂적국면;동시,상품구성효응대출구적영향종정향작용전향부향작용,성위제약출구증장적주요인소。채용현성비교우세법,대불동류형제성품적구체국제경쟁력진행료연구。결과현시,제인니외,동맹오국재노동밀집형산품SITC6＋8정체상이경상실료국제경쟁력;이궤계산품SITC7현로출교강경적국제비교우세;화학품SITC5적출구비교우세재불단제고。
In this paper I use the fixed market share model to make the empirical analysis on the long-term trend of the export growth of Asean-5＇s manufactures.The conclusions indicate that the increase of export has changed from＂the weak market,the strong competition＂ to ＂the strong market,the weak competition＂from 1980 to 2008.At the same time,the structure of manufactures affecting export changes from the positive role to the negative role,which restricts the growth of export.We use the method of RCA to study the competitiveness of different manufactures,which shows that the comparative advantage of Asean-5＇s labor-intensive produces SITC6＋8 has almost vanished except Indonesia while machinery products SITC7 have better comparative advantage;and the comparative advantage of chemical produces SITC5 is increasing.