CAJ | 학술논문

目前关于人口对碳排放影响的经验研究,得出大相径庭的结论。基于这种背景,本文以STIRPAT模型为研究起点,运用中国1997～2009年30个省份的面板数据,采用Driscoll和Kraay基于固定效应中纠正异方差、序列相关和截面相关的估计方法,具体考察了地区人口规模、结构对碳排放量的影响。研究表明,在考虑人口结构因素的情况下,人口规模的排放弹性显著为1,因此,以中国为样本研究碳库兹涅茨曲线（CKC）并不会产生太大偏误。在反映人口结构的变量中,劳动年龄人口对碳排放有显著的正向影响,家庭户规模有显著负向影响,而城镇化率对于碳排放的影响并不显著。
목전관우인구대탄배방영향적경험연구,득출대상경정적결론。기우저충배경,본문이STIRPAT모형위연구기점,운용중국1997～2009년30개성빈적면판수거,채용Driscoll화Kraay기우고정효응중규정이방차、서렬상관화절면상관적고계방법,구체고찰료지구인구규모、결구대탄배방량적영향。연구표명,재고필인구결구인소적정황하,인구규모적배방탄성현저위1,인차,이중국위양본연구탄고자열자곡선（CKC）병불회산생태대편오。재반영인구결구적변량중,노동년령인구대탄배방유현저적정향영향,가정호규모유현저부향영향,이성진화솔대우탄배방적영향병불현저。
Nowadays,the empirical studies about the impact of demographic factors on carbon emission drawn very different conclusion.Based on this background,an econometric analysis using STIRPAT model will be performed based on data related to carbon emission in 30 provinces from 1997 to 2009,to examining the impact of demographic factors,such as population scale and population structure on regional carbon emission.However,the data have heteroscedasticity,serial and cross-section correction,so we take the corrected fixed model methods made by Driscoll and Kraay.The empirical result shows that： population scale will be unit elasticity when considering the case of population structure,so using Chinese data to verify carbon Kuznets curve will not have too much bias.In variables reflecting population structures,the working-aged population has a significantly positive effect on regional carbon emission,while family size has a significantly negative impact.But the urbanization rate is not significant.