CAJ | 학술논문

本文考察了自20世纪50年代以来计量经济学在经济周期研究方面近四十年的发展历程。文章指出，随着时序统计方法的引人和推广,传统的NBER经济周期分析方法与H—CC（Haavelmo—Cowles Commission）方法逐步融合，并成为经济周期研究的主要手段。鉴于计量模型在预测经济衰退时表现仍欠佳，文章对这种融合从方法论上做了批判性的评价。
본문고찰료자20세기50년대이래계량경제학재경제주기연구방면근사십년적발전역정。문장지출，수착시서통계방법적인인화추엄,전통적NBER경제주기분석방법여H—CC（Haavelmo—Cowles Commission）방법축보융합，병성위경제주기연구적주요수단。감우계량모형재예측경제쇠퇴시표현잉흠가，문장대저충융합종방법론상주료비판성적평개。
This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis mainly during the 1960 -90 periods. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo - Cowles Commission approach, catalyzed by time - series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.