CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于信息反应模型研究了机构投资者盈利预测偏离与普通投资者交易需求之间的激励关系，并选取2006至2010年的相关盈利预测和股票交易数据进行实证分析。结果表明，机构投资者的盈利预测存在显著偏离前期市场平均预测值的倾向，而且这种偏离倾向会进一步诱发股票交易增量，从而增加机构投资者的佣金收入。这意味着普通投资者往参考机构投资者的盈利预测报告时，需要考虑其基于刺激交易量的自利因素。
본문기우신식반응모형연구료궤구투자자영리예측편리여보통투자자교역수구지간적격려관계，병선취2006지2010년적상관영리예측화고표교역수거진행실증분석。결과표명，궤구투자자적영리예측존재현저편리전기시장평균예측치적경향，이차저충편리경향회진일보유발고표교역증량，종이증가궤구투자자적용금수입。저의미착보통투자자왕삼고궤구투자자적영리예측보고시，수요고필기기우자격교역량적자리인소。
Based on the information - react model, this paper studies the incentive Correlation between the institutional investor＇s earning forecasts deviation and the stock trading volume. Then,. the authors make empirical analyses after collecting the data of earning forecasts and stock trading volume from 2006 to 2010. The empirical result indicates that the institutional investors＇ earning forecasts are significantly deviate from the previous average earning forecast in the stock market and the difference will raise the trading volume, in turn leading to an increase of brokerage fee. The result implies that individual investors should take into account of the institutional investors＇ selfishness when reading their earning forecast report.