CAJ | 학술논문

土地是有限的，完全依靠土地收入的发展模式是不可持续的。本文主要考察土地财政作为地方政府的一种融资渠道，城市建设用地规模的使用是否与城市人口规模的增加相协调，是否存在过度扩张城市面积促进地区经济发展的现象。为了分析土地出让收入（地租）、公共品供给以及城市规模之间的关系，本文以乔治亨利定理为基础，并引入林达尔均衡条件建立起最优城市人口密度理论模型。采用1999～2009年31个省面板数据对中国城市成本收益模型进行计量分析，结果表明全国26个省低于估算的最优城市人口密度，验证了中国存在城市面积的扩张与人口的增加不协调发展的情况。
토지시유한적，완전의고토지수입적발전모식시불가지속적。본문주요고찰토지재정작위지방정부적일충융자거도，성시건설용지규모적사용시부여성시인구규모적증가상협조，시부존재과도확장성시면적촉진지구경제발전적현상。위료분석토지출양수입（지조）、공공품공급이급성시규모지간적관계，본문이교치형리정리위기출，병인입림체이균형조건건립기최우성시인구밀도이론모형。채용1999～2009년31개성면판수거대중국성시성본수익모형진행계량분석，결과표명전국26개성저우고산적최우성시인구밀도，험증료중국존재성시면적적확장여인구적증가불협조발전적정황。
Land is finite, so relying on land -related revenues is not sustainable for development. The main purpose of this article is to examine the land finance as a financing channel of local government, whether urban construction land use assort with urban population growth, and whether exist phenomenon of over - expansion in city size to boost regional economy. In order to analyze relationship between the land transfer revenues （land rent）, the supply of public goods and city size, this article base on the Henry George theorem, and refer to the Lindahl equilibrium to establish the theoretical model of optimal urban population density. Using econometric analysis of 1999 to 2009 period and 31 provincial panel data to urban cost - benefit model, the result show that 26 provinces in China are lower than estimated optimal urban population density, and further verify the existence of uncoordinated development in city area and population increasing.