CAJ | 학술논문

概述了1998-2010年江苏省引进FDI的规模和结构特征,应用Kaya恒等式评估了1998-2010年江苏省的年度碳排放量。应用单整检验和EG两步检验法,证明了江苏省FDI规模与碳排放量存在协整关系。利用格兰杰因果检验,证明了滞后期为1-3时,江苏省FDI变化是碳排放量变化的原因,但碳排放量变化不是江苏省FDI变化的原因。从产业结构看,江苏省第一产业FDI的变化与碳排放变化不存在因果关系;江苏省第二产业FDI的变化从长期看是碳排放量变化的原因;不论是短期还是长期,江苏省碳排放量的变化均是第三产业FDI规模变化的原因。
개술료1998-2010년강소성인진FDI적규모화결구특정,응용Kaya항등식평고료1998-2010년강소성적년도탄배방량。응용단정검험화EG량보검험법,증명료강소성FDI규모여탄배방량존재협정관계。이용격란걸인과검험,증명료체후기위1-3시,강소성FDI변화시탄배방량변화적원인,단탄배방량변화불시강소성FDI변화적원인。종산업결구간,강소성제일산업FDI적변화여탄배방변화불존재인과관계;강소성제이산업FDI적변화종장기간시탄배방량변화적원인;불론시단기환시장기,강소성탄배방량적변화균시제삼산업FDI규모변화적원인。
This article outlines the size and structure characteristics of FDI in Jiangsu province from 1998 to 2010 and assesses the annual carbon emissions of Jiangsu province during this period by the application of the Kaya identity.By using single-integration test and EG two-step test,this paper proves that the correlation relationship exists between the scale of FDI and carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province,and indicates that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them.Granger causality test proves that when lag period is 1-3,the change of FDI is the cause of carbon emission change in Jiangsu province,otherwise it is not established.The inspection conclusions of FDI effects of carbon emissions on the three industries in Jiangsu Province are that： there is no causal relationship between changes of FDI of the primary industry and the variations of the carbon emission.In the long run,FDI’s changes of the secondary industry in Jiangsu Province are the causes of carbon emissions changes.Whether in the short-term or long-term,the changes of the carbon emissions in Jiangsu province is reason for FDI scale of the tertiary industry to change.In the eight high-energy-consuming industries in Jiangsu Province,the correlation coefficient between carbon emissions and FDI scale of the corresponding industry is greater than 0.69.Among them,the correlation coefficients for chemical materials industry,chemical products manufacturing industry,the paper industry and paper products industry are greater than 0.8,indicating the high correlation between carbon emissions of high energy-consuming industries and FDI scale of the corresponding industry in Jiangsu Province.