改革与战略
改革與戰略
개혁여전략
Reformation & Strategy
2012年
3期
60~63
,共null页
房地产投资 宏观经济 格兰杰因果检验 GDP
房地產投資 宏觀經濟 格蘭傑因果檢驗 GDP
방지산투자 굉관경제 격란걸인과검험 GDP
real estate investment; macroeconomic fluctuations; granger causality test; gross domestic product
房地产投资是固定资产投资的重要组成部分，是影响宏观经济走势的重要因素之一。研究房地产投资与经济发展之间是否存在波动的相互影响关系对协调房地产投资与国民经济发展有着重要的意义。文章利用协整理论、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果等计量理论方法对房地产投资的波动与GDP波动之间的关系进行实证分析，发现两者之间呈现一定的显著关系，进而对房地产调控进行了探讨。
房地產投資是固定資產投資的重要組成部分，是影響宏觀經濟走勢的重要因素之一。研究房地產投資與經濟髮展之間是否存在波動的相互影響關繫對協調房地產投資與國民經濟髮展有著重要的意義。文章利用協整理論、誤差脩正模型和格蘭傑因果等計量理論方法對房地產投資的波動與GDP波動之間的關繫進行實證分析，髮現兩者之間呈現一定的顯著關繫，進而對房地產調控進行瞭探討。
방지산투자시고정자산투자적중요조성부분，시영향굉관경제주세적중요인소지일。연구방지산투자여경제발전지간시부존재파동적상호영향관계대협조방지산투자여국민경제발전유착중요적의의。문장이용협정이론、오차수정모형화격란걸인과등계량이론방법대방지산투자적파동여GDP파동지간적관계진행실증분석，발현량자지간정현일정적현저관계，진이대방지산조공진행료탐토。
Real estate investment form an important part of fixed-asset investment, and it is one of the decisive factors affecting the macroeconomic trend. Therefore, the research on the influence of real estate investment and macroeconomic fluctuations has an important significance for coordinated development of national economy and real estate investments. This paper makes positive analysis of the fluctuation relationship between real estate investment and GDP by using econometrics methods such as the co-integration theory, error correction model and granger causality test. From the analysis data we can found that the relationship between real estate investment and GDP was apparent, and then we discuss the investment in real estate.
