CAJ | 학술논문

基于投入产出法，本文从需求角度分别考察了消费、投资、净出口、中间投入和价格等因素对中国服务业比重变化的影响大小，并与日本、韩国的经验进行比较。中国数据的分解结果表明，价格和居民消费结构是服务业比重上升的最重要因素，中间投入和政府消费是服务业比重下降的最重要因素，其他因素的影响则较小。日本和韩国的分解结果显示，价格和居民消费结构一直都对服务业比重的上升有重要影响，中间投入和投资的影响则与经济发展阶段密切相关。因此，在“十二五”及中长期内，中国服务业在GDP中所占比重将继续保持当前上升态势。
기우투입산출법，본문종수구각도분별고찰료소비、투자、정출구、중간투입화개격등인소대중국복무업비중변화적영향대소，병여일본、한국적경험진행비교。중국수거적분해결과표명，개격화거민소비결구시복무업비중상승적최중요인소，중간투입화정부소비시복무업비중하강적최중요인소，기타인소적영향칙교소。일본화한국적분해결과현시，개격화거민소비결구일직도대복무업비중적상승유중요영향，중간투입화투자적영향칙여경제발전계단밀절상관。인차，재“십이오”급중장기내，중국복무업재GDP중소점비중장계속보지당전상승태세。
Based on the input-output model, this paper decomposes the ratio of the tertiary industrial added value to GDP into consumption, investment, export, intermediate demand and the price. With input-output tables, we calculate contributions of different factors, and compared which with those of Japan and Korea. International result shows that price and consumption structure are the most important factors influencing proportion of tertiary industry on the GDP; the effect of intermediate input relies on the economic development stage and that of net export is connected with commodity structure. According to international experience and current situation, we believe that the service sector will keep expanding in the period of twelfth Five Year Plan and the medium and long term.