CAJ | 학술논문

基于HP滤波法对中国1997—2011年各季度统计数据进行分析,结果表明,产出与通货膨胀实时缺口的估算偏差能够对货币政策产生系统性影响,并引发货币政策的过度反应;而且在国际金融危机前后,这种系统性影响更加显著。因此,中央银行需要适当降低货币政策规则当中产出与通货膨胀缺口的实时反应系数,即现实的货币政策的实时反应系数应该比计量模型估算的（理论上的）反应系数更小一些。在制定货币政策时需要更加审慎,一方面进一步加强宏观经济活动的日常监测工作,另一方面要充分利用多种货币政策工具进行＂微调＂,同时还需要努力构筑防范外部冲击的＂防火墙＂。
기우HP려파법대중국1997—2011년각계도통계수거진행분석,결과표명,산출여통화팽창실시결구적고산편차능구대화폐정책산생계통성영향,병인발화폐정책적과도반응;이차재국제금융위궤전후,저충계통성영향경가현저。인차,중앙은행수요괄당강저화폐정책규칙당중산출여통화팽창결구적실시반응계수,즉현실적화폐정책적실시반응계수응해비계량모형고산적（이론상적）반응계수경소일사。재제정화폐정책시수요경가심신,일방면진일보가강굉관경제활동적일상감측공작,령일방면요충분이용다충화폐정책공구진행＂미조＂,동시환수요노력구축방범외부충격적＂방화장＂。
Based on HP filter,China＇s quarterly data between 1997 and 2011 are analyzed,the results show that the estimated deviation of real-time output gap and inflation gap can produce systematic impact on monetary policies and trigger excessive response to the policies and that this systematic influence is more significant before and after international financial crisis,therefore,central bank should reduce response coefficients of real-time output gap and inflation gap in policy rules,i.e.the real-time response coefficients of current monetary policies should be smaller than those theoretically estimated by calculation model.China should be more careful in making monetary policies,on the one hand,daily supervising work on macro-economic activities should be consolidated,on the other hand,a series of monetary policy instruments should be sufficiently used to make ＂micro-adjustment＂,meanwhile,＂firewall＂ for preventing outside impact should be studiously constructed.