CAJ | 학술논문

对于卖方行业分析师（简称分析师）盈利预测偏差的现象,本文提出一个新假说,即作为理性投资的代表者——分析师的盈利预测偏差会受到投资者情绪或噪音交易的影响,并通过我国的数据证实了该假说。首先,通过实证研究,发现国内行业分析师盈利预测存在系统性的偏差。其次,构造月度投资者情绪指数,通过非参数和参数的统计方法,针对盈利预测偏差的时间序列和面板数据两组数据,证明了情绪是分析师盈利预测偏差的一个重要因素。国际文献中对分析师偏差的绝大多数理论解释通常是基于经典金融学的框架,即假设分析师是完全理性的,其偏差主要来自利益驱动（他们供职的机构或个人利益最大化）。而本文认为情绪和利益驱动因素相结合才能更好地解释分析师预测的偏差。
대우매방행업분석사（간칭분석사）영리예측편차적현상,본문제출일개신가설,즉작위이성투자적대표자——분석사적영리예측편차회수도투자자정서혹조음교역적영향,병통과아국적수거증실료해가설。수선,통과실증연구,발현국내행업분석사영리예측존재계통성적편차。기차,구조월도투자자정서지수,통과비삼수화삼수적통계방법,침대영리예측편차적시간서렬화면판수거량조수거,증명료정서시분석사영리예측편차적일개중요인소。국제문헌중대분석사편차적절대다수이론해석통상시기우경전금융학적광가,즉가설분석사시완전이성적,기편차주요래자이익구동（타문공직적궤구혹개인이익최대화）。이본문인위정서화이익구동인소상결합재능경호지해석분석사예측적편차。
In this paper,we propose a new hypothesis to explain the phenomenon of earnings forecasting bias,arguing that analysts,considered to be rational investors,are influenced by sentiment（or noise trading）when they forecast earnings.Firstly,we find that there is a systematic bias of analysts＇ earning forecasting in Chinese capital market.Secondly,we construct a composite index of sentiment,and use it to test our hypothesis by non-parametric and parametric statistic methods.The empirical results support our hypothesis.Analyst bias is usually explained on the classical financial framework in most literatures,which assumes that the analysts are completely rational and their bias come from the interest-driven.However,we think that it is better to explain analyst bias by both sentiment and interest-driven.