CAJ | 학술논문

消费需求不足已经成为当前中国宏观经济发展面临的主要问题之一。本文利用1978年以来相关经济数据,基于消费总量和消费结构的视角,总结归纳了改革开放以来中国居民消费演变的特征事实,并运用多变量脉冲响应函数,对居民消费与经济增长的相互影响关系进行了实证分析。研究发现,现阶段我国居民消费的暂时性增加对未来的经济增长可能产生抑制作用;政府支出对居民消费和经济增长具有滞后效应,但其影响是正向的;CPI的持续上升不仅不利于居民消费增长,对宏观经济的持续增长也会产生抑制作用;从长远来看,保持物价稳定、建立新的消费热点则是扩大内需和促进经济增长的关键。
소비수구불족이경성위당전중국굉관경제발전면림적주요문제지일。본문이용1978년이래상관경제수거,기우소비총량화소비결구적시각,총결귀납료개혁개방이래중국거민소비연변적특정사실,병운용다변량맥충향응함수,대거민소비여경제증장적상호영향관계진행료실증분석。연구발현,현계단아국거민소비적잠시성증가대미래적경제증장가능산생억제작용;정부지출대거민소비화경제증장구유체후효응,단기영향시정향적;CPI적지속상승불부불리우거민소비증장,대굉관경제적지속증장야회산생억제작용;종장원래간,보지물개은정、건립신적소비열점칙시확대내수화촉진경제증장적관건。
Insufficiency of domestic consumption demand has been one of main problems that face China＇s macro-economic growth.Based on economic data since 1978,this paper summarizes the stylized facts of private consumption changes since China＇s reform and opening-up from the angle of gross consumption and consumption structure,and makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between private consumption and economic growth by using multivariate impulse response functions.It shows that the temporary increase in private consumption may inhibit future economic growth;government expenditure has lagged but positive effects on private consumption and economic growth;the constant rise in CPI is not only harmful to the increase in private consumption,but also has a negative effect on sustainable macro-economic growth;in the long term,to maintain prices and establish new consumption hot spots is the key to the increase in domestic demand and the promotion of economic growth.