CAJ | 학술논문

CEPA促进了两地（香港和中国内地）贸易,是否也改变了两地贸易对香港经济增长的影响机制？本文对CEPA实施前后两地贸易和香港经济增长进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,CEPA实施以来,两地贸易在香港经济中的地位更为显著,但其作用受到国内外经济增长因素的影响。原因在于,CEPA更显著地促使转口贸易成为国内外经济增长对香港溢出的重要渠道,而不在于直接拉动符合CEPA优惠条款的贸易部分,这反映出市场主体在实施CEPA以来的乐观预期。
CEPA촉진료량지（향항화중국내지）무역,시부야개변료량지무역대향항경제증장적영향궤제？본문대CEPA실시전후량지무역화향항경제증장진행료실증분석。연구결과표명,CEPA실시이래,량지무역재향항경제중적지위경위현저,단기작용수도국내외경제증장인소적영향。원인재우,CEPA경현저지촉사전구무역성위국내외경제증장대향항일출적중요거도,이불재우직접랍동부합CEPA우혜조관적무역부분,저반영출시장주체재실시CEPA이래적악관예기。
CEPA promotes the trade between Hong Kong and Chinese mainland.However,does it also change the influence of the trade on Hongkong Economic Growth？ This paper studies the relationship between the trade and Hongkong＇s economic growth before and after the implementation of CEPA.The analysis shows that the importance of the trade become greater after CEPA＇s implementation,but it is affected by international macroeconomic situations.The reason is that CEPA promotes the entrepot to be an important channel of economic growth spillovers to Hongkong rather than promotes the trade which benefit from preferential terms.The result reflects the optimistic expectation after CEPA＇s implementation.