CAJ | 학술논문

研究建设用地规模扩张的影响因子,并选取相关性较显著的因子,与建设用地间建立合理的多元回归模型,拟合建设用地发展趋势,可对用地扩张规模及需求进行预测。通过对某市历年统计数据中的诸多影响因子进行相关分析,筛选剔除存在多重共线性以及与建设用地相关性较弱的因子,建立科学的多元回归模型,并与灰色GM（1,1）模型法的结果作比较。结果表明,所选取的驱动因子合理,其与建设用地扩张的趋势相适应,所建立的多元回归模型可靠,可较好的拟合用地的发展趋势。
연구건설용지규모확장적영향인자,병선취상관성교현저적인자,여건설용지간건립합리적다원회귀모형,의합건설용지발전추세,가대용지확장규모급수구진행예측。통과대모시력년통계수거중적제다영향인자진행상관분석,사선척제존재다중공선성이급여건설용지상관성교약적인자,건립과학적다원회귀모형,병여회색GM（1,1）모형법적결과작비교。결과표명,소선취적구동인자합리,기여건설용지확장적추세상괄응,소건립적다원회귀모형가고,가교호적의합용지적발전추세。
This paper discusses the influencing factors in the expansion of construction land,selects some factors with obvious correlation with land increase,and builds a reasonable multiple regression model that helps to predict the expansion scale and the demand for construction land.The paper makes correlation analysis within several influencing factors using the data over the years of a city,filters and eliminates some factors with weak correlation and multicollinearity.And then a scientific multiple regression model is built and compared with the result of Grey Model（1,1）.The results indicate that the selected factors are reasonable and appropriate for the construction land expansion,and that the multiple regression model is reliable and suits the development trend.