CAJ | 학술논문

IT外包的业务环境、技术环境和需求的不确定性往往会引起IT服务成本的不确定性。针对IT服务成本的不确定性和IT外包投资的不可逆性,运用传统净现值方法和实物期权方法比较固定价格合同、成本加成定价合同和收益共享合同3种常见合同的外包临界值,分析3种合同下客户企业的等待价值,并讨论客户企业推迟外包情形时的等待时间。研究结果表明,实物期权方法得出的外包临界值高于净现值方法得出的外包临界值;等待价值随无风险利率的增大而减小,随漂移率、变动率的增大而增大;当漂移率与变动率平方的比值大于二分之一时,客户企业选择外包的期望等待时间受无风险利率、漂移率和变动率的影响,其他情形下客户企业的期望等待时间不受无风险利率、漂移率和变动率的影响。研究结论为不确定条件下客户企业外包与否和外包时机的选择提供理论支持和实践指导。
IT외포적업무배경、기술배경화수구적불학정성왕왕회인기IT복무성본적불학정성。침대IT복무성본적불학정성화IT외포투자적불가역성,운용전통정현치방법화실물기권방법비교고정개격합동、성본가성정개합동화수익공향합동3충상견합동적외포림계치,분석3충합동하객호기업적등대개치,병토론객호기업추지외포정형시적등대시간。연구결과표명,실물기권방법득출적외포림계치고우정현치방법득출적외포림계치;등대개치수무풍험리솔적증대이감소,수표이솔、변동솔적증대이증대;당표이솔여변동솔평방적비치대우이분지일시,객호기업선택외포적기망등대시간수무풍험리솔、표이솔화변동솔적영향,기타정형하객호기업적기망등대시간불수무풍험리솔、표이솔화변동솔적영향。연구결론위불학정조건하객호기업외포여부화외포시궤적선택제공이론지지화실천지도。
The uncertainty of IT outsourcing business environment,technological environment and demand often result in uncertainty of IT services costs.Based on the uncertain IT services cost and irreversible outsourcing investment,this paper studies outsourcing threshold using net present value approach（NPV） and real options approach respectively under three common contract（fixed price contract,cost plus pricing contract and profit sharing contract）,and analyzes the value of waiting,furthermore discusses the time of waiting when postponing outsourcing.The results indicate that the outsourcing threshold derived by real options approach is larger than by NPV approach.Client′s value of waiting decreases when risk-free interest rate increases,but increases when drift rate and uncertainty rate increases.If the ratio between drift rate and the square of uncertainty rate is larger than 1/2,client′s expected value of waiting is affected by risk-free interest rate,drift rate and uncertainty rate.Under other conditions,however,client′s expected value of waiting is free of risk-free interest rate,drift rate and uncertainty rate.The findings can provide theoretical support and practical guidance for clients to decide whether to outsource or not,and when to outsource under uncertain environment.