CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用国家统计局颁布的1997、2002以及2007年投入产出表,考察了中国经济产出对于消费、投资及出口需求的诱发和依存关系,对1997-2007年间中国产业产出增长的动因进行了分析,得到以下结论：（1）最终需求对于中国生产的整体诱发程度呈现出上升趋势,中国目前的生产诱发效果重心主要在工业部门,且迅速地从轻工业向重工业升级;（2）1997-2007十年间中国产业产出的依存结构发生了本质的变化,经济已经从＂内需依存型＂转变为＂出口导向型＂;（3）1997到2007十年间中国产业产出的增长约有90%归因于最终需求的拉动,由技术进步所推动的生产增长约占整体的10%,但从产业结构上看,近年来中国经济重心过于倾向于工业部门,特别是重化工业的发展,制约了第三产业的增长。文章最后给出了相应的政策建议。
본문이용국가통계국반포적1997、2002이급2007년투입산출표,고찰료중국경제산출대우소비、투자급출구수구적유발화의존관계,대1997-2007년간중국산업산출증장적동인진행료분석,득도이하결론：（1）최종수구대우중국생산적정체유발정도정현출상승추세,중국목전적생산유발효과중심주요재공업부문,차신속지종경공업향중공업승급;（2）1997-2007십년간중국산업산출적의존결구발생료본질적변화,경제이경종＂내수의존형＂전변위＂출구도향형＂;（3）1997도2007십년간중국산업산출적증장약유90%귀인우최종수구적랍동,유기술진보소추동적생산증장약점정체적10%,단종산업결구상간,근년래중국경제중심과우경향우공업부문,특별시중화공업적발전,제약료제삼산업적증장。문장최후급출료상응적정책건의。
Based on the analysis of domestic output growth motivation from 1997 to 2007,reviewing the induction relationship and dependence relationship about consume,this paper studies the investment and export of China economy using the input-output production table of 1997,2002 and newly issued 2007 report of State Statistics Bureau.The results show that： The overall degree of terminal demand production presents a rising trend,while induction effects mainly work at industrial sector and quickly transferring from light industry to heavy manufacturing;During the decade of 1997-2007,essential changes occur in the China output motivation,with the economy mode transforming from domestic demands driven to export-led industrial structure;That 90% of China industrial output growth could be attributed to terminal demand-pull while other 10% to technique driven during the decade 1997-2007.But from the view of industrial structure,China economy has been over inclined to industrial sector,especially to heavy and chemical industries,with the tertiary-industryrestrained.