产业经济研究
產業經濟研究
산업경제연구
Industrial Economics Research
2012年
2期
1~8
,共null页
反倾销与反补贴措施 产业救济效果 COMPAS模型
反傾銷與反補貼措施 產業救濟效果 COMPAS模型
반경소여반보첩조시 산업구제효과 COMPAS모형
anti-dumping and countervailing measures; industry remedy effects; COMPAS model
本文利用可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型,基于2005～2009年我国鸡肉产品生产与进口的有关数据,就我国对美国白羽肉鸡产品反倾销、反补贴税的产业救济效果、福利效应等进行了实证模拟。模拟结果表明：在未来5年里,我国对美国白羽肉鸡产品的反倾销、反补贴税将使我国白羽肉鸡行业的产量和就业增加近26%,销售收入增加38.4%;但是,＂双反＂措施也将导致我国市场鸡肉价格大约上涨9.8%,消费量下降2.8%,消费者福利损失近10亿美元。
本文利用可計算跼部均衡COMPAS模型,基于2005～2009年我國鷄肉產品生產與進口的有關數據,就我國對美國白羽肉鷄產品反傾銷、反補貼稅的產業救濟效果、福利效應等進行瞭實證模擬。模擬結果錶明：在未來5年裏,我國對美國白羽肉鷄產品的反傾銷、反補貼稅將使我國白羽肉鷄行業的產量和就業增加近26%,銷售收入增加38.4%;但是,＂雙反＂措施也將導緻我國市場鷄肉價格大約上漲9.8%,消費量下降2.8%,消費者福利損失近10億美元。
본문이용가계산국부균형COMPAS모형,기우2005～2009년아국계육산품생산여진구적유관수거,취아국대미국백우육계산품반경소、반보첩세적산업구제효과、복리효응등진행료실증모의。모의결과표명：재미래5년리,아국대미국백우육계산품적반경소、반보첩세장사아국백우육계행업적산량화취업증가근26%,소수수입증가38.4%;단시,＂쌍반＂조시야장도치아국시장계육개격대약상창9.8%,소비량하강2.8%,소비자복리손실근10억미원。
By using the data of production and trade of chicken products of China from 2005 to 2009 and Commercial Policy Analysis System（COMPAS） model,this paper analyses how China＇s anti-dumping and countervailing measures against white feather chicken products from USA would affect the production,employment and welfare at the industry level.The results of simulation show that： in the next 5 years,the implementation of anti-dumping and countervailing duties will make China＇s white feather chicken industry＇s output and employment increase by nearly 26%,sales revenue increase by 38.4%;However,the measures will also raise the chicken prices in China＇s market by 9.8%,and the consumption will fall by 2.8%,consumer welfare will lose by nearly 10 billion U.S.dollars.Based on the research conclusions,the paper concludes some policy recommendations.
