CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用Kaya及其扩展模型将CO2排放影响因素划分为产业能源强度、生活能源强度、能源结构、产业结构、人均产出、人居收入和人口总数7个方面。根据1995～2009年江苏省一、二、三产业和居民生活部门的12种能源消费数据,利用LMDI模型分解计算出7个因素的CO2排放量和贡献值。研究结果表明,1995～2009年江苏省CO2排放量总体呈上升趋势;人均产出、人居收入和人口总数对CO2排放起到正向驱动作用,产业能源强度、生活能源强度、能源结构、产业结构起到负向驱动作用,人均产出和产业能源强度分别是影响CO2排放的正向和负向主导因素。降低CO2排放量,需要通过提高产业能源强度、调整产业结构、能源结构和促进居民生活方式和消费模式的转变,要坚持计划生育的基本国策。
본문채용Kaya급기확전모형장CO2배방영향인소화분위산업능원강도、생활능원강도、능원결구、산업결구、인균산출、인거수입화인구총수7개방면。근거1995～2009년강소성일、이、삼산업화거민생활부문적12충능원소비수거,이용LMDI모형분해계산출7개인소적CO2배방량화공헌치。연구결과표명,1995～2009년강소성CO2배방량총체정상승추세;인균산출、인거수입화인구총수대CO2배방기도정향구동작용,산업능원강도、생활능원강도、능원결구、산업결구기도부향구동작용,인균산출화산업능원강도분별시영향CO2배방적정향화부향주도인소。강저CO2배방량,수요통과제고산업능원강도、조정산업결구、능원결구화촉진거민생활방식화소비모식적전변,요견지계화생육적기본국책。
Influence factor and trend of dioxide emism＇on must be made clear for saving energy, reducing emission and developing Jiangsu economy. This paper divides production energy intensity, life energy intensity, energy structure, industry structure, per capita out, per capita income and population by Kaya and its expanded model. Based on the data of three industries and twelve kinds of energy comumption d Jiangsu from 1995 to 2009, COz emission and contribution d seven factors are worked out. The results show that, COz e- mission continued to increase from 1995 to 2009; per capita out, per capita income and population are forward driving fsctom and production cnexgy intensity, life energy intemity, energy structure, industry structure are backward driving factors; per capita out and production energy intersity are the main factors of forward and backward driving; CO2 emission can be decreased and inhibited by rnereasing production energy intensity adjusting industrial structure and energy structure, encouraging people to change their life and consumption modes.