工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
Industrial Technology & Economy
2012年
4期
125~131
,共null页
李玮 张荣霞 梁文群 赵国浩
李瑋 張榮霞 樑文群 趙國浩
리위 장영하 량문군 조국호
能源强度 能源加工转换效率 VAR模型 脉冲响应分析
能源彊度 能源加工轉換效率 VAR模型 脈遲響應分析
능원강도 능원가공전환효솔 VAR모형 맥충향응분석
energy intensity; efficiency of energy conversion; VAR model; impulse response analysis
山西省作为全国的能源生产和消费大省,单位国内生产总值能耗远高于全国平均水平,生态环境脆弱,"十二五"期间完成单位国内生产总值能耗降低16%的目标任务艰巨。本文首先从直接作用和间接作用两方面分析了技术进步对能源强度的作用机理,然后采用能源加工转换效率指标来表征技术进步水平,利用山西省1980~2009年相关数据,建立了能源强度与技术进步的VAR模型,进而运用脉冲响应分析研究了山西省能源强度对能源加工转换效率冲击的动态响应,并进行了方差分析。研究结果显示:山西省能源加工转换效率的提高对能源强度的负向影响将在滞后30多年中都存在,滞后效应较长。最后从4个方面提出了政策建议。
山西省作為全國的能源生產和消費大省,單位國內生產總值能耗遠高于全國平均水平,生態環境脆弱,"十二五"期間完成單位國內生產總值能耗降低16%的目標任務艱巨。本文首先從直接作用和間接作用兩方麵分析瞭技術進步對能源彊度的作用機理,然後採用能源加工轉換效率指標來錶徵技術進步水平,利用山西省1980~2009年相關數據,建立瞭能源彊度與技術進步的VAR模型,進而運用脈遲響應分析研究瞭山西省能源彊度對能源加工轉換效率遲擊的動態響應,併進行瞭方差分析。研究結果顯示:山西省能源加工轉換效率的提高對能源彊度的負嚮影響將在滯後30多年中都存在,滯後效應較長。最後從4箇方麵提齣瞭政策建議。
산서성작위전국적능원생산화소비대성,단위국내생산총치능모원고우전국평균수평,생태배경취약,"십이오"기간완성단위국내생산총치능모강저16%적목표임무간거。본문수선종직접작용화간접작용량방면분석료기술진보대능원강도적작용궤리,연후채용능원가공전환효솔지표래표정기술진보수평,이용산서성1980~2009년상관수거,건립료능원강도여기술진보적VAR모형,진이운용맥충향응분석연구료산서성능원강도대능원가공전환효솔충격적동태향응,병진행료방차분석。연구결과현시:산서성능원가공전환효솔적제고대능원강도적부향영향장재체후30다년중도존재,체후효응교장。최후종4개방면제출료정책건의。
As a typical province of energy production and consumption,Shanxi has a long way to go to reach its 12th Five-Year Plan's goal of energy conservation,which is that the unit GDP energy consumption should be decreased by 16%,because of its relatively higher energy consumption per unit of GDP and fragile ecological environment.The paper first analyses the action mechanism of technical progress on energy intensity from the direct and indirect aspects.Then it uses the 1980~2009 data,obtained from 1980~2009 Shanxi Statistical Yearbooks and Shanxi Statistics Bureau,to work out the energy intensity,and uses the efficiency of energy conversion to represent technology progress,so the VAR model of these two variables is established.Third it uses impulse response analysis to study the energy intensity's dynamic response to the impulse of energy conversion efficiency,and also carries out the variance decomposition,and the result is the negative impact of energy conversion efficiency on energy efficiency will exist more than 30 years,and this delayed effect is rather long.Finally the paper proposes four countermeasures.