CAJ | 학술논문

利用对粮食主产省之一——安徽省的农户所做调研的数据,假设粮农将所有的闲置耕地全部用来满负荷生产粮食,且粮食单产达到本村庄近五年内的最高产量,测得安徽省户均有45%的增产潜力;若上述假设条件不变,进一步假设安徽省南部的三季生产区只生产两季,则粮食增产潜力变为25%;在上述假设的基础上,再考虑气候对粮食单产的负面影响,则该比例变为11%。安徽省农户的粮食生产潜力之所以较大,是因为粮食的比较效益下降、农业基础设施较差、综合服务组织缺失和粗放式管理存在缺陷。最后提出保护和实现安徽省粮食生产潜力的对策。
이용대양식주산성지일——안휘성적농호소주조연적수거,가설량농장소유적한치경지전부용래만부하생산양식,차양식단산체도본촌장근오년내적최고산량,측득안휘성호균유45%적증산잠력;약상술가설조건불변,진일보가설안휘성남부적삼계생산구지생산량계,칙양식증산잠력변위25%;재상술가설적기출상,재고필기후대양식단산적부면영향,칙해비례변위11%。안휘성농호적양식생산잠력지소이교대,시인위양식적비교효익하강、농업기출설시교차、종합복무조직결실화조방식관리존재결함。최후제출보호화실현안휘성양식생산잠력적대책。
Through using the data from the farmer household investigation in Anhui province,this paper calculates the rate of grain growth potential is 45% on the assumption that farmers use all of idle grain land to produce grain and the level of grain unit yield of every farmer reaches the highest level of their own village in latest five years.Based on the above assumption,when changing triple-cropping to double-cropping which is general phenomenon in south region of Anhui,this rate is 25%;if considering the impact of climate on grain unit yield,this rate is 11%.The relative grain production rate is high because of the decreasing of grain production profit,poor agriculture infrastructure construction,the lack of comprehensive agriculture service organization and extensive administration.Finally,it proposes the countermeasures for protecting and realizing the grain production potential of Anhui.