CAJ | 학술논문

国家主权信用评级对当今国际经济和金融运行有着极为重要的影响力。但是，与其地位不相符的是，评级机构的评级结果事后多次被证明准确性和前瞻性较差。事先缺乏预警而事后大幅降级．甚至对加剧危机起到了推波助澜的作用。本文从国家主权信用评级质量的检验方法入手．系统分析了违约率和迁移率等传统方法在检验评级结果起到的作用及其不足，给出了检验评级质量的一般方法，并验证了该评级检验方法的科学性和准确性。
국가주권신용평급대당금국제경제화금융운행유착겁위중요적영향력。단시，여기지위불상부적시，평급궤구적평급결과사후다차피증명준학성화전첨성교차。사선결핍예경이사후대폭강급．심지대가극위궤기도료추파조란적작용。본문종국가주권신용평급질량적검험방법입수．계통분석료위약솔화천이솔등전통방법재검험평급결과기도적작용급기불족，급출료검험평급질량적일반방법，병험증료해평급검험방법적과학성화준학성。
Sovereign credit rating has very important influence on the current international economic and financial operations, especially during the special period when it plays a role in destroying or prospering a nation by a word. However, inconsistent with their status, the rating agencies＇ ratings are proved to be lacking both accuracy and forward-looking nature for many times. No advance warning before the crisis and substantially downgrading after the crisis actually exacerbate the crisis. Therefore, setting an effective method to evaluate the accuracy and forward-looking nature of ratings is very important, which should not only play an important role for investors to evaluate credit risks, but also determine the direction for rating agencies to improve their technology. Here, we propose a method to evaluate the quality of sovereign credit ratings. Specifically, we analyze the shortcomings of default rate and migration rate as traditional methods in testing the rating results, and thus proposing four rules to verify the sovereign rating results by using bond CDS spreads. Finally, we use actual cases to demonstrate that our four rules can clearly reveal whether the ratings are forward-looking and accurate or not.