CAJ | 학술논문

文字概率是衡量不确定性的方式之一，即人们使用诸如“也许”、“未必”的词汇来描述特定事件发生的可能性。文字概率不同于数字概率，主要体现在文字概率的模糊性、非概率运算性和语义特性上。这使得相对于数字概率，用文字概率衡量不确定性既有优势也有问题，进而对人们的不确定信息沟通和风险决策造成影响。虽然文字概率与数字概率存在特征上的差异并且人们在日常交流中偏爱文字概率，但是大部分风险领域的研究却仅局限于数字概率，今后有必要研究使用文字概率测量的风险决策。在已有文字概率特征研究的基础上，还可以进一步探究其不同于数字概率的其它特征（文字／数字概率与双系统模型的联系、文字概率的跨文化差异等）及其对风险决策的影响。
문자개솔시형량불학정성적방식지일，즉인문사용제여“야허”、“미필”적사회래묘술특정사건발생적가능성。문자개솔불동우수자개솔，주요체현재문자개솔적모호성、비개솔운산성화어의특성상。저사득상대우수자개솔，용문자개솔형량불학정성기유우세야유문제，진이대인문적불학정신식구통화풍험결책조성영향。수연문자개솔여수자개솔존재특정상적차이병차인문재일상교류중편애문자개솔，단시대부분풍험영역적연구각부국한우수자개솔，금후유필요연구사용문자개솔측량적풍험결책。재이유문자개솔특정연구적기출상，환가이진일보탐구기불동우수자개솔적기타특정（문자／수자개솔여쌍계통모형적련계、문자개솔적과문화차이등）급기대풍험결책적영향。
Verbal probability is one of the ways of measuring uncertainty. People use verbal probability, such as ＂uncertain＂ and ＂possible＂, to describe the chance that an event will happen. Verbal probability differs from numerical probability, particularly in features of vagueness, non-probabilistic operation, and semantic feature. Some remarkable phenomena and problems arise and the quality of judgment and decision making suffer in one way or another when people use verbal probability, rather than numerical probability, to measure uncertainty. The role of verbal probability in risk decision making is understudied in spite of the fact that people often use verbal probability to communicate uncertainty in their daily lives and of the great differences between verbal probability and numerical probability. Suggestions are made for future work to focus on risk decision making using verbal probability and on other potential features （e.g., the relationship between verbal/numerical probability and the dual system model, cross-cultural differences in verbal probability） and their effects on risky choices, in order to further improve our understanding of the mechanism of risk decision making.