CAJ | 학술논문

2003年以来，中国电煤价格快速上涨，“市场煤”与“计划电”的矛盾冲突日益激烈。火电企业普遍选择“停机限发”，进而引发全国范围内的“电荒”频频出现。本文基于协整检验和误差修正模型，利用2003—2010年的季度数据，研究了上网电价、供电煤耗等因素对火电产业发电量的影响。结果表明，上网电价是影响火电发电量的最重要因素，季度上网电价每提高1％，火电季度发电量就提高13．42％；即季度上网电价提高1分／千瓦时，火电季度发电量就约提高2416亿千瓦时；代表技术进步的供电煤耗每降低1％，火电季度发电量就增加0．767％；主营业务成本每提高1％，火电季度发电量就降低0．53%；而总资产贝4对火电发电量具有微小的负向影响。对此本文提出了适当小幅快频上调上网电价、深入推行节能降耗等政策建议。
2003년이래，중국전매개격쾌속상창，“시장매”여“계화전”적모순충돌일익격렬。화전기업보편선택“정궤한발”，진이인발전국범위내적“전황”빈빈출현。본문기우협정검험화오차수정모형，이용2003—2010년적계도수거，연구료상망전개、공전매모등인소대화전산업발전량적영향。결과표명，상망전개시영향화전발전량적최중요인소，계도상망전개매제고1％，화전계도발전량취제고13．42％；즉계도상망전개제고1분／천와시，화전계도발전량취약제고2416억천와시；대표기술진보적공전매모매강저1％，화전계도발전량취증가0．767％；주영업무성본매제고1％，화전계도발전량취강저0．53%；이총자산패4대화전발전량구유미소적부향영향。대차본문제출료괄당소폭쾌빈상조상망전개、심입추행절능강모등정책건의。
Since 2003, coal prices in China has increased rapidly. Thermal power companies generally choose to ＂stop generating＂, triggering nationwide ＂electricity shortage＂. Based on cointegration and error correction model using quarterly data for 2003--2010, this thesis studies the impacts of electricity on-grid price, power coal consumption and other factors on thermal power productivity. The empirical results show that the electricity on-grid price is the most important factor. Thermal power productivity per quarter increases by 13.42% with 1~ increase of electricity on-grid price per quarter. Coal consumption per quarter, on behalf of technological progress, reduces by 1%, thermal power productivity per quarter will increase by about 0. 767 %. Therefore, the government should slightly increase the electricity on-grid price and implement in- depth energy saving policies.