CAJ | 학술논문

文章结合文献分析和定量分析法，首先借助公共服务理论阐述公共体育服务的逻辑起点是公共体育需求，通过ARIMA模型预测居民文娱消费总量，反映国内公众体育消费需求的前景，要求体育行政部门切实转变公共服务供给的导向思路，加快建立公共需求导向的公共体育服务供给，并结合目前公共需求的基本状况以及公共服务构建基本趋势，在供给内容的多样化和趋势性、供给方式的灵活性上做出调整与改革，进一步加强信息公开和科学决策，以提高公共体育服务的供给能力。
문장결합문헌분석화정량분석법，수선차조공공복무이론천술공공체육복무적라집기점시공공체육수구，통과ARIMA모형예측거민문오소비총량，반영국내공음체육소비수구적전경，요구체육행정부문절실전변공공복무공급적도향사로，가쾌건립공공수구도향적공공체육복무공급，병결합목전공공수구적기본상황이급공공복무구건기본추세，재공급내용적다양화화추세성、공급방식적령활성상주출조정여개혁，진일보가강신식공개화과학결책，이제고공공체육복무적공급능력。
Document analysis and quantitative analysis are used to expound, by means of the theory of public service, that the logical start of public sports service is the public sports demand. ARIMA is adopted to predict the total volume of public entertainment consumption and to reflect the sports consumption prospect of the domestic citizens. The sports administrations are required to transform their orientation of public service supply and speed up the establishment of public sports supply based on the public demand. Besides, it is also required that we should combine the present public demand and the basic trend of constructing public services to diversify our supply contents and make our supply mode more flexible. We should make our information more transparent and our decisions more scientific so as to improve the supply ability of public sports services.