CAJ | 학술논문

通过高速公路项目施工进度的风险识别，将主要影响因素分为硬、软指标并建立风险指标体系。采用模糊逻辑与概率分析相结合的方法对识别出来的风险进行计算和评价；运用主成分分析法将风险指标体系中的各数据进行自动赋权并降维，使概率分析与模糊逻辑法的评价简单易行；最后经过实际案例检验，证实该方法可行并具有现实意义。
통과고속공로항목시공진도적풍험식별，장주요영향인소분위경、연지표병건립풍험지표체계。채용모호라집여개솔분석상결합적방법대식별출래적풍험진행계산화평개；운용주성분분석법장풍험지표체계중적각수거진행자동부권병강유，사개솔분석여모호라집법적평개간단역행；최후경과실제안례검험，증실해방법가행병구유현실의의。
Through the risk identification of highway project＇ s progress of construction, the authors divide the major factors into strong index and soft index, and then establish a risk index system. Using the fuzzy logic com- bined with probability analysis, the authors calculate and evaluate the identified risk. They make the evaluation on probability analysis and fuzzy logic method simple by using the principal component analysis, and automatically em- powering and reducing dimensionality of the data for risk index system. Finally, it will confirm the feasibility of the method and practical significance through the test on actual cases.